Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2026
June 29, 2026
Busy run of data and ECB Sintra forum to dominate final day of the
quarter; China PMIs, Japan/Korea Production, French CPI, UK BRC Shop
Prices and BRC survey to digest; Canada monthly GDP, US Consumer
Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings ahead.
- U.S.A.: Consumer Confidence seen rising on Iran/USA MoU and fall in
gasoline prices; erratic JOLTS Job Openings seen easing, but watch
revisions.
Q2 The Ghost In The Machine – Out Now
EVENTS PREVIEW
A busy run of data and the ECB’s Sintra Forum on Central Banking Forum dominate the final day of the quarter, though the latter may subdue trading volumes, with markets left to contemplate the fact of a 20% drop in oil prices on the month, a 15% drop in gold on the quarter (worst since 2013) amid a resurgent USD on the back of a hawkish shift in Fed rate views, and a further drop in the JPY to its weakest levels since 1986, with fiscal concerns rising and political pressure on the BoJ intensifying.
There are China’s marginally better than expected NBS PMIs, Japan & South Korea Industrial Production (the latter slide owed everything to factory retooling), better than expected French CPI ahead of German & Italian HICP, UK BRC Shop Prices and Lloyds Business Barometer.
Ahead lie Canada’s monthly GDP, which is expected to show a relatively sharp bounce to 0.4% m/m, after Q1 GDP unexpectedly dipped -0.1% SAAR, per se more of a reactive correction than pointing to a sustained pick-up in activity. But the focus will be on US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings.
While the US and Iran have again agreed to stop hostilities, the negotiations on a longer-term solution are set to drag on, with a still wide gaps on long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear programme, and the likelihood that Israel will continue to strike at Hezbollah in Lebanon. Per se, the question is whether the gradual resumption of flows of oil, gas and refined products will be enough to alleviate woefully low levels of inventories, with careful attention kept on Chinese imports after a quarter of relatively low volumes.
** U.S.A. – Jun Consumer Confidence, May JOLTS Job Openings **
Consumer Confidence is expected to get a boost from falling energy prices and the signing of the US/Iran MoU, with a rebound to 94.4 from 93.1 expected, still subdued from a historical perspective, but still clawing higher from January’s low of 89.0. Revisions are now frequently quite large, and there remains a focus on the Labour Differential (Jobs Plentiful minus Hard to Get), which has been in a relatively narrow range (5.7 to 7.5) since the start of the year. JOLTS Job Openings remain very erratic, unexpectedly surging to 7.618 Mln in April from March’s 6.887 Mln, and expected to drop back to 7.30 Mln, with many surveys pointing to a sharp drop in vacancies, and layoff announcements also on the rise again.
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