Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2026
June 29, 2026
London Wheat Report
A mixed day on London saw the Nov/May spread reduced to £9.75, whilst MATIF wheat continued grinding lower at 0.25-0.75 EUR across the curve as harvest rumbles on. The Euronext maize contract was the outlier, closing 5.50 EUR higher on August with a second round of 40+ temperatures forecast for Southwestern France next week.
US Ags also showed heavy losses ahead of the first notice day tomorrow on July contracts and tomorrow’s much anticipated quarterly Grain Stocks and planted Acreage report. A flash sale of 136,000 mt of soybeans for the 2026/2027 marketing year to an unknown did little to affect market sentiment.
Argus raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 26/27 to 91.2 mmts, which would be the highest since the record 2022/23 harvest of 96mmt. This is 2.5mmt above their April estimate due to a recovery in winter wheat after dry weather in the previous two seasons, though spring wheat output is expected to fall to its lowest since 2019/20. This is still higher than SovEcon at 88.9mmt and the USDA at 88mmt
AgRural reports that harvest of Brazil’s centre-south ‘Safrinha’ corn crop had reached 22% as of last Thursday, up from 16% in the previous week and above the 18% reported a year earlier. Mato Grosso remained in the lead, while in other states, the cold weather and rains are slowing the pace of the harvest and causing quality problems.
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