Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2026
June 29, 2026
Welcome to the Q2 2026 edition of Ghost In The Machine
Welcome to the Q2 2026 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as uncertainty about the long-term consequences of the conflicts in the Middle East contends with optimism about an AI-related investment boom.
Geopolitics & Energy
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in many seafarers being stuck on board ships in the Persian Gulf for many months, once again raising concerns about safety. We take an in-depth look at the history of safety improvements and the now emergent risks related to geopolitical instability and the adoption of alternative fuels in the context of the energy transition.
Commodity inputs and supply chain interdependencies
The vulnerability of fertilizer feedstocks to disruptions to gas output and vital by-products such as ammonia, nitrogen and sulphur has again been exposed, as it was after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, serving as a timely reminder about interconnectivity in the resources sector.
Energy supply developments and monetary policy considerations
Those disruptions to energy supplies and accompanying price pressures are also going to be a test for central bank credibility, particularly in judging the extent of second round price effects and the need to tighten policy.
Agricultural commodities and market factors influencing pricing
Sugar prices have traded in a relatively narrow range, but the outlook is subject to a complex mix of weather effects in India and elsewhere, the outlook for ethanol demand for both sugar and corn, above all in EM countries which are heavily dependent on energy imports.
Foreign exchange dynamics and agricultural trade competitiveness
There is also a look at the impact of the gyrations of EUR/USD on Baltic grain farmers, even if they are only exporting to the Eurozone, given competition from Black Sea farmers pricing in USD.
Technological developments in commodity and energy trading
Finally, we consider the rapid development of AI and digital technology in commodity and energy trading, and the potential pitfalls despite heavy investment.
Marc Ostwald | ADMISI
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
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