Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2025
March 25, 2025
Welcome to the Q1 2025 edition of the Ghost In The Machine
This issue is packed with insightful analyses and forward-looking perspectives on a range of topics that are shaping our world. There is a particular focus on AI, Energy, Power, Geothermal, Renewables, Freight, Risk Management, Regulation, Ammonia, Coffee, Cocoa, Potatoes, French Fries, Sugar, Sunflower Oil, Futures Clearing, Exchanges.
AI and Energy
The future of AI and energy markets and production are inextricably linked, with inordinately complex technical challenges, as well as profound geopolitical, economic, and social implications that will reshape the future.
Geothermal Energy
One notable exception to the Trump administration’s position on ESG and renewable energy policies is geothermal energy, but what are its advantages and challenges?
Freight and Risk Management
Shipping rates have never been a beacon of stability, but the forces unleashed by the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Middle East tensions, and global trade tensions have made sector risk management even more challenging. So how can Bayesian inference facilitate decision-making models and strategies?
FuelEU Maritime Regulation
FuelEU Maritime (FEUM) came into force at the start of 2025, a comprehensive regulation aimed at mitigating the carbon intensity of the maritime industry. There is a look at the details and their likely impact.
Ammonia Industry in Europe
Europe’s once very stable and largely overlooked ammonia industry is at a major crossroads, symptomatic of broader fears of deindustrialisation on the continent. We take a look at various scenarios for its future.
Futures Clearing and Exchanges
The move by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to set up a Futures Climate Merchant (FCM) breaks a barrier between what has traditionally been complementary but separate activities; however, it raises issues about conflicts of interest, which regulators will need to address.
French Fries Industry
It is a challenging time for the French fries industry, with challenges not only from rising potato prices but also volatile sunflower oil and packaging prices, reshaping demand outlook perspectives.
Soft Commodities Performance
Soft commodities, above all cocoa and coffee, but also sugar prices, put in a stronger performance in 2024, in no small part due to weather and climate effects. So what impact will Trump’s trade tariffs potentially have?
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
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