May 12 USDA Supportive Corn & Beans, Neutral/Bearish Wheat

WASDE SUPPLY/DEMAND  HIGHLIGHTS

Today’s data was supportive for both corn and soybeans, neutral to bearish for wheat.

Corn:

  • Old crop 24/25 ending stocks cut 50 mil. bu. to 1.415 bil. on higher exports, 30 mil. below expectations
  • Brazil 2024/25 production rose 4 mmt to 130 mmt
  • 2025 production forecast at a record 15.820 bil. bu. slightly above expectations
  • Ave. 2025 yields at 181 bil. per acre
  • New crop 25/26 ending stocks forecast to rise to only 1.80 bil. bu. more than 200 mil. below expectations
  • Global stocks expected to drop nearly 10 mmt in 25/26 to 278 mmt nearly 20 mmt below expectations

Beans:

  • Old crop 24/25 ending stocks cut 25 mil. bu. to 350 mil. on higher exports, at the low end of expectations
  • Bean oil usage for biofuels down 150 mil. lbs., exports up 100 mil. lbs, imports down 50 mil. lbs.
  • 2025 production forecast at 4.340 bil. bu. in line with expectations
  • Ave. 2025 yield at a record 52.5 bil. per acre
  • New crop 25/26 ending stocks forecast at 295 mil. bu. 65 mil. below expectations
  • Global stocks in 25/26 expected to increase to 124 mmt, 2 mmt below expectations

Wheat:

  • Old crop 24/25 ending stocks down 5 mil. bu. to 841 mil. on higher food usage at the low end of expectations
  • All wheat production for 2025 forecast at 1.921 bil. 35 mil. above expectations
  • Winter wheat production at 1.380 bil. up 31 mil. from YA vs. expectations of down 25 mil.
  • HRW production – 784 mil. SRW – 345 mil., and white – 206 mil.
  • 2025/26 ending stocks expected to rise to 923 mil. 60 mil. above expectations and a 7 year high
  • Global stocks for 25/26 little changed at 266 mmt, however above expectations
USDA WASDE May 12 2025 Infographic

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now