Lower Ags Led by Selloff in Soybeans

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Lower trade across most of the Ag space overnight led by a selloff in soybeans.  Pressure stems from a more favorable US weather outlook while shaking off higher energy prices.  Overnight, US military forces intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles targeting US troops in Jordan.  In response to these attacks US and Saudi Arabia renewed strikes on Iranian targets.  Renewed hostilities in the region cast doubt on hopes for a peace agreement and the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz any time soon.  WTI Sept-26 crude oil is up $3.90 per barrel at $83.15.  Spot RBOB is up $.05 per gallon while HO is $.15 higher.  Needed rain is expected across key growing areas of the central Midwest by the end of this week keeping yields prospects elevated.  Totals of 1”-2” are expected for much of Iowa and surrounding states along with much of the ECB.  Lighter amounts but still some precipitation is expected for the far WCB and N. Plains.  The SW plains to remain hot/dry.  Week 2 of the outlook calls for above normal temperatures with normal to below normal precipitation for much of the nation’s midsection.  Above normal temperatures across all of Europe with only scattered rains in the east.  SA holding in a seasonably warm pattern with moderate to heavy rain in EC Argentina and S. Brazil.  The US $$$ is little changed in 2-sided trade.  The Fed. Reserve concludes their 2-day meeting today with odds of a 25 bp interest rate hike at roughly 35%.  US stock indices are mixed.

Corn: 

Sept-26 and Dec-26 are both $.03 lower at $4.55 ½ and $4.77 ½ respectively, with both holding within yesterday’s range.  Today’s EIA data is expected to show ethanol production hold near 322 mil. gallons, slightly below the pace needed to reach the current USDA corn usage estimate of 5.550 bil.  Argentina exported 35.8 mmt of grain in the first 6 months of 2026, up 19% YOY and 34% above their 5-year Ave.  Corn shipments totaled 19.1 mmt.  Speculative buying yesterday pushed the MM long position back up to 120k contracts, O.I. however was down 2k contracts.

Soybeans: 

Aug-26 beans are down $.12 ½ at $11.99 ½ falling to a 2-week low.  Nov-26 is $.11 ½ lower at $12.08 ½, still not filling its chart gap at $12.04 with the overnight low of $12.05.  Aug-26 meal is down $2.80 at $317.50, bouncing off its 100-day MA.  Aug-26 oil is up 13 points at 70.89.  Crush margins rebounded $.08 ½ to $2.79 ½ bu.  China’s Sinograin announced they will auction off 500k mt of soybeans on Friday in order to free up space for incoming US beans.  The market has little wiggle room for US yields slipping below the current 53 bpa trendline forecast if China fulfilled 25 mmt of US beans purchases.  We’ll see if China uses this price break to acquire additional US soybeans.  US Gulf FOB offers has slipped to $.10-$.15 below Brazilian offers for Sept thru Nov.

Wheat: 

Prices steady to $.03 higher with all 3 classes experiencing 2-sided trade.  CGO Sept-26 is $.01 higher at $6.63 ½, KC Sept-26 is $.2 ½ higher at $7.29, while MIAX Sept-26 is up $.01 at $7.03 ½.  Russia and Ukraine continue to target each other’s grain storage, port infrastructure and vessels limited grain movement from the region while raising logistical costs.  Russia is considering arming vessel with military personnel while 3 Black Sea terminals are now restricting grain intake.  These 3 hubs, 2 in Novorossiysk and 1 in Taman, have the capacity to ship 20 mmt of grain annually.  SovEcon lowered Russia’s 26/27 wheat export forecast 2 mmt to 44.6 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 47.5 mmt.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.