ADMIS News
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher led by wheat. SN is up 17 cents and near 17.15. SX is near 15.41. SMN is near 408.8. BON is near 82.56. CN is up 13 cents and near 7.40. CZ is near 7.03 WN is up 48 cents and near 10.88. KWN is up 48 cents and near 11.69. MWN is up 45 cents and near 12.37.
GSI commodity index gapped open higher led by grains. Most commodities are higher. GSI index is near 816 with all-time high at near 893 in 2008. Some feel Crude could test 125 then 147 and could even eventually test 170 this winter. US Dollar is lower. US jobs data is helping US stocks. China relaxing Covid restrictions is also helping most commodities except copper?
The U.S. is deeply skeptical of Russia’s intentions in negotiations to allow Ukraine to resume food exports through the Black Sea, given the Russian military’s repeated targeting of such food supplies.
US 7 day weather forecast call for normal weather. Cool temps north and warm south. Extended models show a ridge building across south central Midwest on day 10. Jet stream still too fast to build a persistent ridge. Some feel jet stream could begin to slow in late June. 30 day rainfall calls for normal rains KS, OK and MO. Below normal SD, NE, IA, MN, WI and IL. Central Brazil is dry, North China plains are also dry. EU is turning dry with temps warming.
Soybeans jumped back over 17.00 on talk of China relaxing some Covid restrictions. Dalian soybean futures are lower while soymeal and soyoil are higher improving crush margins. US old crop unshipped soybean sales are near record and new crop is record high. Most doubt USDA will make big changes on June 10 but private analyst est US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 200 vs USDA 235 and 2022/23 near 200 vs USDA 310. Nearby soybean futures all-time high is 17.94.
Corn and wheat futures are higher as Ukraine war intensifies. We have spent weeks trending lower due to favorable US weather and talk UN and EU are working overtime to persuade Russia to open Ukraine grain and sunoil exports. Many African and Middle East countries rely on Ukraine exports. Instead, over the weekend, Russia bombed key Ukraine ports and grain facilities. Most doubt USDA will make big changes on June 10 but private analyst est US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,375 vs USDA 1,440 and 2022/23 near 1,200 vs USDA 1,360. Some though have added acres and yield and estimate US 2022/23 corn carryout closer to 1,630. Previous highs was near 8.24 July corn and 12.84 July Chicago wheat. Some feel corn could test that high on increase demand before US harvest and wheat after US harvest. World wheat export matrix is a mess given talk of lower Black Sea and EU exports and fact buyers are short. Some North Africa countries need loans to buy wheat.
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