Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2024
October 8, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are marginally higher. Seems like a long week for market breaking news. Fridays USDA report could be key. SX is up 6 cents and near 13.15. SMZ is near 394.0. BOZ is near 60.39. CZ is up 2 cents and near 4.96. WZ is up 2 cents and near 6.64. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 7.82. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 8.40. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar are higher. China is lifting ban on group travel including Japan, EU and US.
Soybean futures are higher. Dalian soymeal prices are making new highs. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices were higher. Trade is looking for US soybean yield near 51.3 bpa vs USDA 52.0. US OND soybean export prices are competitive to China vs Brazil. Question is; Is China covered for OND or will they need to add to US buying. Weekly new crop US export sales are est at 300-1,500 mt. Argentina estimated 2024 crop near 48 mmt vs 20 this year. SX range 12.90 to 13.30.
Corn futures are higher. CZ found support near 4.90. Next resistance is near 5.20. Higher Crude is offering support. Trade is looking for US corn yield near 175.5 bpa vs USDA 177.5. Trade is looking for US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,168 vs USDA 2,262. Weekly US ethanol use could suggest USDA could drop corn use 5-15 mil bu. Weekly new crop US export sales are est at 200-500 mt. Argentina estimated 2024 crop near 56 mmt vs 34 this year. Some look for USDA to increase Brazil 2023 crop
Wheat futures are higher. Wheat futures battling low demand for US exports and negative tech signals vs talk of lower World crops and increase Black Sea tension. Weather supports US SRW 2024 plantings but HRW soils are dry. Weekly new crop US export sales are est at 200-500 mt. US SRW export prices are competitive vs EU and Black Sea. Tough to find enough news to rally wheat 50 cents or break 50 cents. Key is Black Sea tension news.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
