Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil gapped higher early Wednesday and reached its highest level since June 22 on the apparent collapse of the cease fire between the US and Iran. President Trump, speaking to reporters in Turkey, said that as far as he was concerned the MOI was over. Yesterday, the US revoked the general license authorizing the sale of Iranian crude after Iran attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US also struck locations in Iran in response to the Iranian attacks and Iran responded with attacks as well. Iran was unhappy about ships moving through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz, as they want to control shipping through the strait. This was a festering issue that the MOI had not resolved. There were reports today that at least four oil and gas tankers had either decided not to move through the strait or been forced to turn around.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were higher overnight in response to the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran. API gasoline stocks were to -2.93 million barrels for the week ending July 3 versus an average trade expectation calling for -1.6 million, and distillates were -1.8 million versus +600,000 expected. The EIA report will be released later today.
NATURAL GAS
August Natural Gas was higher off the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, but the gains were not as impressive as they were for the petroleum complex, as the US market is more insulated from the global market in gas than it is for crude oil. The attack on a Qatari LNG tanker on Tuesday was bullish to global prices, but there is a physical limit to US exports capability.
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