Global Ag News for May 11

 TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents; HRW unchanged; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is down 1 to 5 cents; Soybeans up 2 to down 3; Soymeal unchanged to down $1.50, and Soyoil down 50 points.

Chinese Ag futures for (September) settled unchanged in soybeans (at U.S. $26.00), down 7 yuan in Corn (at $11.17), down 12 in Soymeal (at $518), down 122 in Soyoil (at 62.15 cents), and down 46 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 2 ringgit at 4,366 (basis July) at midsession with rising inventories weighing over prices.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run was notably drier in the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region in the second week of the outlook compared to the midday GFS model.  Last evening’s GFS model run was similar, overall, in the Northern Plains for total moisture shown in the second week of the outlook. There was a decrease in the region May 20 – 22 but then an increase May 23 – 25. Some shower activity is expected that will promote some more improvement in planting and establishment conditions; though, more rain will still be needed.

South America Weather Forecast: Meaningful rain is still expected in Parana of Brazil and some immediate nearby areas Tuesday into Wednesday. The relief will be beneficial but also temporary as a lengthy period of mostly dry weather will then follow this event. A majority of Safrinha corn country of Brazil is not expected to receive rain from the Tuesday into Wednesday event. There may be some erratic light showers farther north later in the next seven to ten days; however, concern of dryness in Safrinha corn areas of Brazil will remain.

 The player sheet had funds net sellers of 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 35,000 Corn; sold 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 Soymeal, and; sold 6,000 in Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 367,000 Corn; long 197,000 Soybeans; long 55,000t Soymeal, and; net long 87,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 710; Corn down 8,700; Soybeans down 2,000 contracts; Soymeal up 1,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,500.

Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; 73 Rice; ZERO Corn; 7 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oat; ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.

There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 66; Soyoil down 100; Rice up 115; HRS Wheat down 1)—Registrations total 68 contracts for SRW Wheat; 16 Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 198; Soyoil 1,055 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,535; HRW Wheat 1,289, and; HRS 521.

Tender Activity—S. Korea passed on 69,000t optional-origin corn—Indonesia seeks 180,000t optional-origin feed wheat—

U.S. Winter Wheat headed was 38% versus 27% last week, 42% a year ago, 46% average. U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 49% good to excellent (trade estimate was 48%) versus 48% a week ago and 53% a year ago; 33% fair (33% last week, 31% a year ago); 18% poor to very poor (19% last week, 16% a year ago).

U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 70% (trade estimate was 69%) versus 49% last week, 40% a year ago, 51% average. U.S. Spring Wheat emerged was 29% versus 14% last week, 15% a year ago, 20% average.

U.S. Corn planted was 67% (trade estimate was 67%) versus 46% a week ago, 65% last year, and 52% average. U.S. Corn emerged was 20% versus 8% a week ago, 22% last year, and 19% average.

U.S. Oats planted were 85% versus 72% a week ago, 76% last year, and 73% average. U.S. Oats emerged were 60% versus 47% a week ago, 53% last year, and 54% average. Oats were rated 47% good to excellent versus NA% last week and 69% a year ago; 37% fair (NA% last week, 28% a year ago), and; 16% poor to very poor (NA% last week, 3% a year ago).

U.S. Soybeans planted was 42% (trade estimate was 40%) versus 24% a week ago, 36% last year, and 22% average. Soybeans emerged were 10% versus NA% a week ago, 6% last year, and 4% average.

For the week ending May 6th, Wheat exports are running up 1% versus a year ago, unchanged a week ago and versus the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year. Corn up 79% (up 82% last week); USDA up 50%. Soybeans up 62% (up 64% last week) with the USDA up 36% on the year.

U.S. agricultural commodities trader ADM said it planned to build a soy-crushing facility and refinery in North Dakota to meet increasing demand for food and renewable fuel. Companies are counting on rising demand for food as restaurants and the travel sector emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, and for feedstocks to produce biofuels, including renewable diesel. A renewable diesel boom could also have a profound impact on the agricultural sector by increasing demand for oilseeds such as soybeans and canola.

Tyson Foods Inc. reported better sales and a higher profit for its latest quarter but warned inflation may crimp margins as expenses pick up. The meat processor on Monday reported profits attributable to the company of $476 million for its fiscal second quarter, up from $376 million for the year-earlier period. On a per-share basis, earnings rose to $1.30 from $1.03, the company said.

Demand for chicken sandwiches and wings is surging at US restaurants this year, but for the country’s biggest poultry processor, rising costs are offsetting much of the benefit.

China’s weak population growth is falling closer to zero as fewer couples have children, government data showed Tuesday, adding to strains on an aging society with a shrinking workforce. The population rose by 72 million people over the past 10 years to 1.411 billion in 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics announced after a once-a-decade census. It said annual growth averaged 0.53%, down by 0.04% from the previous decade.

Brazilian agribusiness consultancy AgRural on Monday said it cut its production estimate for Brazil’s second corn crop in the Center South region due to a prolonged drought that worsened in the first week of May. Farmers there are now expected to reap 65.1 million tonnes of second corn, down from 73 million tonnes estimated on April 19. At the same time AgRural said average yields are now seen at 84.1 60-kilo bags per hectare, the lowest in three years.

In the whole of Brazil, AgRural said second corn crop production will be an estimated 69.6 million tonnes, compared with 75.1 million tonnes in 2020.

Brazil’s total production of corn in the 2020/2021 crop cycle will be an estimated 95.5 million tonnes, compared with 102.6 million tonnes in the previous season, AgRural said.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 22.84 million tonnes by May 9, data published by the European Commission showed. That was down from 30.59 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.

—EU 2020/21 barley exports had reached 6.68 million tonnes, against 6.75 million a year ago

—EU 2020/21 maize imports stood at 12.72 million tonnes, down from 17.89 million

European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 12.95 million tonnes by May 9, data published by the European Commission showed. That compared with 12.70 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.

—EU rapeseed imports in 2020/21 had reached 5.71 million tonnes, compared with 5.39 million a year ago

—Soymeal imports so far in 2020/21 were at 14.62 million tonnes against 15.46 million a year earlier

—Palm oil imports were at 4.49 million tonnes versus 4.93 million a year ago

• FRENCH FARM MINISTRY ESTIMATES 2021 GRAIN MAIZE AREA, EXCLUDING SEEDS, AT 1.44 MLN HA VS 1.61 MLN HA LAST YEAR
• FRENCH FARM MINISTRY KEEPS ESTIMATE OF 2021 SOFT WHEAT AREA AT 4.89 MLN HA
• FRENCH FARM MINISTRY RAISES ESTIMATE OF 2021 BARLEY AREA TO 1.80 MLN HA FROM 1.73 MLN HA LAST MONTH
• FRENCH FARM MINISTRY CUTS ESTIMATE OF 2021 RAPESEED AREA TO 989,000 HA FROM 990,000 HA LAST MONTH

Euronext wheat fell sharply on Monday as rainfall eased crop concerns in France amidst profit-taking after last week’s surge. September milling wheat unofficially closed down 8 euros, or 3.4%, at 224.00 euros ($272.6) a tonne. The contract climbed nearly 6% last week.

Morocco will reimpose customs duty on soft and hard wheat of 135% and 170% respectively from May 15 in order to cut imports at a time of higher prices in international market, the agriculture ministry said.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May. 1-10 rose 32.3 percent to 455,285 tonnes from 344,039 tonnes shipped during Apr. 1-10, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.