Written Commentary
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.05-$.12 higher recovering from early weakness. CGO Sept-26 was up $.09 ¾ at $6.44, KC Sept-26 was $.11 ¾ higher at $6.78 while MIAX Sept was $.05 higher at $6.58 ¼. Midday reports that Russia attacked 2 bulk carriers in Ukrainian ports fueled today’s price reversal. While Russian grain shipments remain restricted thru the Don-Azov channel, vessels are reportedly traveling thru the Sea of Azov, however not able to exit thru the Kerch Strait, which links to the Black Sea. Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters maintains they will be able to meet their export commitments by rerouting cargoes along different routes however, the market seems skeptical as higher costs and logistical issues could prove problematic. Russian exports seasonally start to pick up in the late summer months. US winter wheat harvest advanced to 67%, while slightly below expectations it remains above the 62% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 61%. Spring wheat ratings rose 1% to 58% G/E, however the crop rated poor/VP rose 3% to 10%. The fair category fell 4% to 32%. Despite the decline, overall ratings remain just above their historical average. 72% of the crop is headed, in line with the 5-year Ave.
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower, however closed off session lows, drawing support from higher wheat prices. Spreads were mixed and little changed. Sept-26 and Dec-26 were both quick to fill their gaps from the Sunday night open. Initial support for Dec-26 is at Friday’s low of $4.47 ½. Crop ratings improved 1% to 68% G/E, in line with expectations, however still well below 74% from YA. Ratings improved in 14 states while declining in 4. Overall ratings remain slightly above the historical average. 34% of the crop is silking vs. 32% YA and 5-year Ave. of 30%. 6% of the crop is in the dough stage, matching YA. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast 1% to 141.7 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 138 mmt. After a few delay’s, Brazil’s energy council formally approved increasing the mandatory ethanol blend 2% to 32% for a 180-day period. The last increase in Aug-25 raised it 3% to 30%. US corn exports should continue to hold up well as Brazil uses an increasing share of their crop domestically. US remains competitively priced in the global marketplace.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans down $.03-$.04, meal was $1 higher while bean oil finished 40-50 points lower. Both Aug-26 and Nov-26 beans rejected trade back above $12 yesterday for the 2nd time this month. Support for Aug-26 is at its 100-day MA at $11.72 while support for Nov-26 is at $11.70. Aug-26 meal held support at its 50-day MA at $313.90. While Aug-26 oil rejected trade above yesterday’s high, it also held support at its 50-day AM at 72.13. The much above normal temperatures across the nation’s midsection is expected to ease by early next week, however models vary on how much benefical rain will fall in week 2 of the outlook. How moisture is distributed across the NW corn and soybean belt will go a long way in shaping price action the 2nd half of July. No flash sale announcements today after the USDA announced 136k mt of soybeans was sold to China yesterday. Flash sales to China/unknown last week reached 856k mt. US FOB offers at the Gulf stretched out to a $.30 premium over Brazilian offers for Aug/Sept timeframe. Chinese bean imports in June reached an all-time high at 13.55 mmt, up 15% from May-26 and up 10.5% from June-25. In the first half of 2026 total imports reached 49.4 mmt, up 1.5% YOY. Tomorrow’s NOPA crush report is expected to show members processed 204 mil. bu. in June, down from 208.8 mil. in May-26 while well above 185 mil. bu. in June-25. Bean oil stocks are expected to slip to 1.653 bil. lbs. down from 1.735 in May however, up from 1.384 bil. YA.
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