Global Ag News for Mar 25.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Britain removes import ban imposed after German foot-and-mouth case, German ministry says

Britain has ended a ban on imports of German livestock and animal products imposed after a case of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany in January, Germany’s agriculture ministry said on Monday.

Exports of livestock and animal products to Britain and Northern Ireland are expected to resume this week, it added.

Germany said on March 12 it had regained its status as free of foot-and-mouth disease in most areas, opening the way for the lifting of export restrictions on meat and dairy products.

Germany announced its first outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in nearly 40 years on January 10 in a herd of water buffalo on the outskirts of Berlin, in the Brandenburg region.

But the outbreak remains at one case, with no others reported since, although the source is still unknown. Many domestic restrictions have already been lifted.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 1/2 in SRW, down 14 3/4 in HRW, down 14 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $3.60; Soyoil up 0.04.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 9 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans down 22 1/4; Soymeal down $3.50; Soyoil down 2.07.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.9% in SRW, up 2.6% in HRW, down 0.8% in HRS; Corn is up 1.1%; Soybeans up 0.5%; Soymeal down 3.5%; Soyoil up 5.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil down 34; Palm oil down 72; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 60.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 60 ringgit (-1.39%) at 4245.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 24 were: SRW Wheat up 6,293 contracts, HRW Wheat down 147, Corn up 237, Soybeans up 1,668, Soymeal up 7,578, Soyoil down 454.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 24 March 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A very warm week lies ahead for the major winter wheat regions of the U.S. before regionally colder temperatures arrive throughout the 6-15 day forecast, though nothing extreme is in sight to the benefit of crop development
• SOUTH AMERICA: High rainfall will carry through the end of the month along the Argentina Pampas in a favorable trend for late soybean development while potentially disrupting the corn harvest
• EAST ASIA: Moderate temperatures and dry conditions into early March over the major wheat areas of China will not have any negative impacts on the crop due to prior rains
• SOUTH ASIA: Mild temperatures will prevail over most of India through the next 10 days in a favorable outlook for wheat as the harvest approaches

 

WET SPELLS TO PERSIST ACROSS BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA

• Wet weather in the Pampas, unfavorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in Brazil

Northern Plains: A system brought isolated showers through over the weekend. Some additional isolated showers will fall this week as well. However, drought is very much a concern heading into the season and the recent rain isn’t enough to turn the momentum around. However, a larger system this weekend could set up a more active pattern through the region going into April which may bring some better precipitation chances.

Central/Southern Plains: Though a system moved through over the weekend, most areas stayed dry. Some streaks of light showers may move through, but most areas will be warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. However, a system will move through Friday and Saturday, with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather pattern may be more active next week, but the forecast favors northern areas over the southwestern Plains.

Midwest: A system moved into the region on Sunday with widespread rain. Some snow may linger over the far north on Monday. Isolated showers may linger for much of the week, though it does appear to be drier for much of the region. A warmup is forecast late week with another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow again. The weather pattern may stay active next week with more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. If it does, some areas my be a bit too wet to start on early fieldwork.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A system moved through with showers developing late Sunday into early Monday which included some severe weather and heavy rainfall. Though some streaks of rain may pass through this week, warmer and drier conditions should be beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move through this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms.

 

The player sheet for 3/24 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, sellers of 500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: A state grains buyer in Syria was considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat, with no purchase yet made
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17 from March 12
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.463m Tons of Corn for Export, 822k of Soybeans

In week ending March 20, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 822k tons vs 658k the previous wk, 786k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,463k tons vs 1,692k the previous wk, 1,255k a yr ago
• Wheat: 485k tons vs 495k the previous wk, 433k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: March 20

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending March 20 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 405k tons of the 822k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

Weekly USDA wheat ratings improve in Kansas; Oklahoma ratings slide

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 49% of the winter wheat in top producer Kansas was in “good to excellent” condition, up 1 percentage point from the previous week, but ratings fell in Oklahoma as wind-whipped soils lost moisture.

The USDA rated 37% of Oklahoma’s winter wheat as “good to excellent”, down 9 percentage points from last week.

“Extreme winds, lack of rainfall, and wildfires were reported across much of the state, resulting in reduced soil moisture and crop conditions,” said a report issued by the Oklahoma field office of USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

The CME Group’s K.C. hard red winter wheat futures have climbed during much of March on worries about dry conditions threatening U.S. production, although futures dipped on Monday as global wheat supply prospects brightened.

Wheat ratings improved in Colorado and Texas even as drought intensified in the Plains. The USDA rated 66% of Colorado’s wheat and 31% of the Texas crop as “good to excellent”, up from 60% and 28%, respectively, a week ago.

Approximately 34% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was located in an area experiencing drought as of March 18, the USDA said last week, up from 27% the previous week and 13% a year earlier.

With the harvest still a few months away, the U.S. winter wheat crop is breaking dormancy and resuming growth, a time when moisture needs typically increase. Forecasts called for mostly dry weather this week in the southern Plains wheat belt.

Farmers in a few southern states are planting corn. Seeding was 65% complete in Louisiana, while progress reached 45% in Texas, 14% in Mississippi and 10% in Arkansas.

During the winter and early spring, the USDA releases crop progress reports for select states. The government is scheduled to resume regular weekly national crop progress reports on April 7.

 

IKAR Raises Russian Wheat Production Forecast for 2025-26 Season

IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat production to 82.5m tons from 81m tons, General Director Dmitry Rylko said Monday.

Output is seen within a range of 78.5m to 86.5m tons, vs 77m to 85m tons previously

 

EU Crops Conditions ‘Fairly Good’, Better Than Last Season: MARS

Grain crops in the European Union are seen in a fairly good condition, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday.

• Compared with the same time last year, there are fewer and generally smaller areas where crops are currently affected by unfavorable weather conditions
• “Weather conditions have generally been favorable for seedbed preparation, the sowing of spring cereals, and other field operations”
• Forthcoming weather conditions may still be decisive
• Romanian, Bulgarian, and Ukrainian crops have seen some irreversible damage
  • In Ukraine, a precipitation deficit affected the whole country though negative impacts on crops are confined to eastern regions

 

Brazil Soybean Crop Est. Cut to 165.9m MT, Prior 165.9m: AgRural

Consulting firm AgRural comments on Brazil’s soybean and corn crops in emailed report.

• Lower soybean estimate stems from disappointing output seen in Rio Grande do Sul state, partially offset by higher yields in Mato Grosso
  • Brazil soybean harvest was 77% completed as of March 20, compared to 70% a week earlier and 69% a year before
• 2024/25 corn estimate was raised to 121.8m metric tons; prior estimate was 121.2m mt
  • 2024/25 summer corn harvest on the Center-South region was 77% completed, vs 72% a week earlier

 

Russian wheat export prices rise as buyers become more active

Russian wheat export prices rose last week as buyers became more active, with some major purchasers of Russian grain including Iran returning to the market, analysts said.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in the second part of April increased by $6 to $255 a metric ton, said Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy placed prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content at between $252 and $256 a ton FOB, up from $247 to $250 the previous week. Prices were “supported by early-week futures’ strength and firmer importer demand”, it said.

Iran’s GTC is believed to have purchased around 500,000 metric tons of wheat a week ago, expected to be mainly sourced from Russia, while Turkey is now back in the market, permitting tariff-free wheat imports under a flour export scheme last week.

Weekly wheat exports were estimated last week at 0.32 million tons, down from 0.34 million tons in the previous week, Sovecon said. Sovecon has upgraded its estimate of March wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 1.6 million tons, significantly lower than the 4.8 million tons of exports in March last year.

IKAR has also again increased its estimate for exports in March, by 0.1 million tons to 1.4 million to 1.5 million. IKAR raised on Monday its baseline 2025 wheat crop forecast to 82.5 million metric tons from 81.0 million tons previously as the winter crop situation improves.

The spring sowing campaign has been underway in Russia for several weeks now. Sovecon expects that planting will speed up shortly amid warm weather.

 

US turns to Brazil for eggs and considers other sources during bird flu outbreak

• Egg prices soared after bird flu killed millions of laying hens
• US expands imports as part of a $1 billion plan to lower prices
• Broiler chicken producers ask FDA to ease refrigeration rule
• States reconsider animal welfare policies to address egg supply

The U.S. has almost doubled imports of Brazilian eggs once used only for pet food and is considering relaxing regulations for eggs laid by chickens raised for meat, as President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to bring down sky-high prices spiked by bird flu.

While none of the Brazilian or broiler chicken eggs would wind up on grocery shelves, they could be used in processed foods such as cake mixes, ice cream or salad dressing, freeing up more fresh eggs for shoppers. Allowing use of broiler chicken eggs would require changing regulations, and some food safety experts warned that this could risk tainting food products with harmful bacteria.

Nationwide economic strain persists from the virus that has wiped out nearly 170 million chickens, turkeys and other birds since early 2022. Grocery shoppers peruse thinly stocked shelves, restaurants have raised menu prices, and wholesale egg prices surged 53.6% in February before easing a bit in March.

The egg shortage has fueled food inflation even as Trump’s trade disputes have threatened to disrupt supply chains and raise costs for fresh produce and other goods.

In February, the administration announced a $1 billion plan to lower egg prices, which includes helping farmers prevent the spread of the virus and researching vaccine options. The Trump administration is also promoting imports from countries such as Turkey, Brazil and South Korea that typically send few eggs to the U.S., and has asked Europe to send more.

U.S. egg imports from Brazil in February increased by 93% from a year earlier, the Brazilian Animal Protein Association said.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration told Reuters it is reviewing a petition from the National Chicken Council to allow sale for human consumption of eggs laid by chickens that the council’s members raise for meat.

Currently, broiler chicken producers destroy millions of those eggs because they lack sufficient refrigeration to meet an FDA food-safety requirement.

In 2023, the FDA denied a similar request from the council, citing salmonella risk. The chicken industry hopes the agency will now support the effort as aligned with Trump’s goal of slashing unnecessary regulations, said Ashley Peterson, the council’s senior vice president of scientific and regulatory affairs.

“We need more yolks for folks,” said U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson, R-South Dakota, who is co-sponsoring a bill to allow the eggs to be used in food products.

 

HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL LIKELY TO PERSIST IN APRIL

• The April monthly outlook suggests near-normal rains in most of South America, with local dryness in East and Central Brazil
• Divided temperature pattern is expected with warmth across Brazil and cool conditions in the Argentinian Pampas
• The highest risk exists for the 2nd corn development in Goiás, being in the crosshairs of heat and dryness

APRIL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND CROP IMPACTS

Crop Impacts (wheat, corn, sugarcane, coffee)

The main focus in April will be on developing 2nd corn in Brazil, as well as conditions for the soybean/corn harvest in Argentina.

 

 

 

 

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