Written Commentary
ADM Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
August 4, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Expect a headline driven session today as President Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi in Washington. Markets bulls remain hopeful this week’s summit will result in China purchasing US corn and wheat. Yesterday afternoon US Treasury Sec Bessent announced the US and China has agreed to extend their trade truce 2 months to Jan. 10th to continue work on a broader trade agreement. This truce announced last Nov following the Trump/Xi summit in S. Korea suspended some tariffs, rare earth curbs along with hefty fees on Chinese vessels entering US ports. Bessent praised China for their pace of US soybean purchases while pointing out China is “a little behind schedule” on other agricultural commitments, presumably the $17 billion (prorated for 2026) of Ag. products outside of the 25 mmt of soybeans. Energy prices are higher with Nov-26 WTI crude oil up $1.55 per barrel at $93.70, RBOB futures are steady while HO is up $.03 per gallon. Dry across the central Midwest the past 24 hours with rains impacting the far ECB and WCB. Moderate to heavy rain will continue to fill in across the plains and WCB into early next week, before stretching into the central Midwest by the middle of next week. Harvest in the west will be a slowed, while the Central and ECB have a decent window through month-end. In South American rains the next 7 days will favor the interior south of Brazil with scattered rains in Argentina and Mato Grosso and MGDS in WC Brazil. Temperatures are holding at above normal levels. Hot for much of Europe however scattered rains expected in France. Beneficial rain is expected for Ukraine. The US $$ is moderately higher reaching a fresh 2-month high. US stock indices are lower.
Corn:
Dec-26 futures are steady at $5.29 in 2-sided trade. Prices continue to hold within the range from Fri. Sept. 11th, USDA report day. First support is at $5.23 ¼. Ukraine’s Ag. Minister stated they could ship up to 20 mmt of grain through Baltic ports as they continue to shift agricultural goods away from the Black Sea. He estimates this would add $100/ton in transportation costs. They are seeking $1.5-2 bil. from the EU and international partners to help cover logistics. At the AgroFood Summit in Mersin Turkey, an agricultural analyst forecasts the global grain market could lose 38 mmt of supplies in 2026/27 due to logistical issues in the Black Sea, including 10 mmt of corn and 28 mmt of wheat. US export sales are expected to range from 32-55 mil. bu.
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are up $.08 ½ at $13.26 ½. Oct-26 meal is up $6.30 at $376.60 while Oct-26 oil is down 20 points at 67.05. Spot meal prices continue to soar as near-term supplies remain scarce in certain areas of the WCB. Soybean supplies have dwindled as wet conditions continue to delay harvest. Resistance for spot meal is at $394/ton, a 50% retracement from the 2022 high to the 2024 low. Crush margins rebounded $.08 ½ to $2.45 ½ bu. Sinograin will auction off another 514k tons is soybean reserves from Govt stocks next Monday. Brazil is expected to ship 8 mmt of soybeans in Sept-26, down from earlier forecasts of 8.3 mmt, however would still be a record high for the month. Export sales are expected to range from 55-70 mil. bu. of beans, 250-400k tons of meal and 0-8k tons of oil.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.01 to $.04 lower pressured by healthy rains across the US plains. CGO Dec-26 is down $.03 ¾ at $7.04 ¾, so far holding support above $7. KC Dec-26 is $.03 ½ lower at $7.68 while Dec-26 MIAX is $.01 lower at $7.28. KC and MIAX both holding within yesterday’s range. Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskiy told leaders at the UN his country is ready for a truce in the Black Sea based on proposals from Egypt, India and Turkey, leaving it up to Russia to respond. The number of countries buying Russian wheat has been slashed. So far only 8 countries have bought wheat from Russia in Sept-26, down from 26 in Sept-25. In Aug-26, 16 countries bought Russian wheat vs. 43 in Aug-25. US export sales are expected to reach 12-22 mil. bu.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
