Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CRUDE OIL
November Crude Oil turned lower on Tuesday on further indications that supply flows out of the Middle East are picking up. There is the news that Saudi Arabia has resumed oil loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline. Ship-tracking firm Kpler estimates current throughput on the pipeline at around 2.65 million bpd and expects it to climb to between 3 million and 4 million bpd in the coming days. A full return to the pre-attack rate of roughly 5.5 million bpd could still take another month. Over the weekend we had news that Middle East crude exports this month were estimated at 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the war started in February. (Prior to the war flows were estimated at 18.8 million bpd.) Exports via the Strait of Hormuz were expected to hit about 7.4 million bpd this month.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were both lower early Tuesday, in line with crude oil. News this week of Mideast oil flows reaching their highest level since the war started and Saudi Arabia resuming loadings on the Red Sea has pressured crude oil, and it may also have boosted expectations from refinery activity around the Guld and in Asia.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas was lower early Tuesday for the third straight session, and the market has quickly given back the gains from last week’s breakout rally. LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose is running around 112.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, tying the record 112.3 bcfd in August, but this is down from much higher levels earlier this month. As the season advances, we should see a boost in consumption. The 8-14 day maps have normal or below normal temperatures across the eastern half of the lower 48 states and above normal out west.
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