Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
Welcome to the Q3 2026 edition of Ghost In The Machine
Global Economic Outlook
Welcome to the Q3 2026 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, with the conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea remaining unresolved, but putting upward pressure on energy prices, heightening inflation risks and leaving major central banks little choice but to raise interest rates.
Corn Outlook: Weather, Demand and China
There is an in-depth outlook for Corn, following the devastating impact of the hot summer weather in Europe, and taking into account rising demand for corn-based ethanol, the potential Super El Niño and the possibility of China buying US corn.
Agricultural and Soft Commodities
There is also a broader perspective on how weather disruption, geopolitics, along with policy and demand shifts, are converging to engender a complex set of interconnected risks for agricultural and soft commodities.
Shipping and Maritime Insurance
The conflicts in the Black Sea, Red Sea and Persian Gulf have created a great many challenges for the shipping sector, and we take a close look at how this is playing out in terms of maritime insurance.
Agentic AI in Commodities Trading
Commodities trading has undergone a dramatic though largely incremental (rather than disruptive) process of digitalization over the past couple of decades, but the advent of Agentic AI could prove to be transformational, not in replacing traders, but rather in bridging the gap between information and action, allowing traders to make faster and better informed decisions, with much less effort.
Central Bank Foreign Exchange Reserves
The composition of central bank foreign exchange reserves has seen a quiet but steady shift since the Global Financial Crisis, with gold taking over top spot from US Treasuries.
Supply Chains, Processing and Infrastructure
Finally, we look at how the rush to secure supply chains of raw materials is only one part of an equation that has to consider processing capacity and a whole array of key infrastructure.
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Ltd
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