Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was higher early Thursday but inside the range of the previous two sessions, as the market was consolidating after Tuesday’s move to new contract highs. Traders are understandably skeptical of the various attempts to negotiate for peace in the Middle East and Ukraine. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Putin on Wednesday for talks on ending the war in Ukraine. Putin has agreed to resume talks next month, and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy also said he supported the talks. In the meantime, the US State Department has ordered the departure of non-emergency US government employees and family members from Saudi Arabia. This comes in the wake of more Houthis attacks. In addition Iran said four vessels involved in oil transfers in the Persian Gulf were hit and caught fire
PRODUCTS
Product prices are higher this morning as the various attempts by the Trump administration to ease tight supplies are being dismissed as only helping on the margins, the latest being an offer to loan up to nearly a third of the 1-million-barrel US emergency heating oil reserve.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas fell to another new contract low early Thursday, as mild weather continues to point to low demand. For the EIA storage report today, a Reuters poll of analysts has an average expectation calling for a net injection of 79 billion cubic feel for the week ending October 16 (range +72 to +88 bcf). This would be below the the five-year average change for the week at +87 bcf (range +78 to +94).
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