Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CRUDE OIL
November Crude Oil continued its drift lower early Tuesday, falling to its lowest level since September 4. Shipping data out of the Persian Gulf continues to point to a recovery in oil flows. According to Reuters, Vortexa data indicated crude, condensate and refined fuels flows averaged 19.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE versus an average of 23.6 million bpd for the 12 months prior to the war. Kpler data showed September oil exports at 18.6 million bpd. This leaves out Iran, whose exports are believed to have fallen to zero due to a US blockade. The Saudis also cut the official selling price of their Arab Light into Asia for November loadings this week.
PRODUCTS
President Trump signed an executive order on Monday that will waive the off-road requirement for tax-free diesel and allow anyone to buy the red dye diesel fuel that is used by the agriculture industry. This may lower the cost for road vehicles, but it doesn’t add to the supply.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas was higher early Tuesday following, through on Monday’s rally and a reversal higher from near-contract lows on Friday. US production is starting off October at a slower pace, with LSEG reporting average output in the US Lower 48 states at 111.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), down from the record of 113.3 bcfd in August and September. Near term production will be hampered by an unplanned outage in Kentucky, where Canadian energy company Enbridge’s Texas Eastern Transmission unit declared force majeure.
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