CPI Increase More Than Expected


Stock index futures were higher in the overnight trade but quickly declined when the larger than expected increase in the consumer price index was reported.

The March consumer price index increased 0.4% when up 0.3% was expected, and the consumer price index excluding food and energy advanced 0.4% when a gain of 0.3% was anticipated.

The minutes from the March 20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released at 1:00 central time.

Futures will probably resume the uptrend after tomorrow’s producer price index report is out of the way.

The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while the technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.


The U.S. dollar index quickly advanced when the consumer price index was reported.

Major central bank policies are diverging with the Federal Reserve likely to remain restrictive for longer, while other major central banks are likely to become accommodative sooner.

The European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting on Thursday, and it is widely anticipated that the ECB will maintain current interest rates. However, traders expect the central bank will reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its June meeting.

The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its main interest rate unchanged for a sixth-consecutive time at 5.0% at its policy meeting today. However, there is a 70% probability of a rate cut in June.


Futures were higher in the overnight trade but quickly declined to new lows for the move when the larger than expected increase in the consumer price index was reported.

The Treasury will auction 10-year notes.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Michelle Bowman at 7:45, Thomas Barkin at 11:45 and Austan Goolsbee at 11:45.

There is increasing speculation that Federal Reserve monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer.

The fundamentals and technicals for futures are bearish on balance.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now