Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Jeff Rowe as EVP and COO
July 20, 2026
SOYBEANS
The soy complex started lower overnight and has dramatically extended the weakness into this morning on better rainfall chances across the Midwest and Plains and notably lower energy prices after President Trump paused the Iranian bombing campaign. Sharp weakness in crude oil is pulling bean oil lower. Weather models have increased the chances for scattered rains across the central Plains, central Midwest, and eastern bean belt as the hottest temperatures shift to the southwest US in the 6 to 14 day outlook.
SOYBEAN MEAL
The meal market turned sharply lower to start the week, with beans seeing heavy selling as well after a weekend shift in the forecast to better precipitation chances across the Midwest and Plains and a moderation of the heat in the 6 to 14 day period. The broad commodity selloff today follows large speculative buying last week.
CORN
A tough start to the week for the bulls as weather models increased rainfall chances across the central Plains and Midwest later this week, and the extended outlook shifts the heat further to the southwest. The below-normal precipitation area in the 6 to 14 day outlook moves to the northwest US. The weather changes, combined with sharply weaker energy prices on President Trump’s halting of the bombing campaign on Iran, follows aggressive speculative buying last week.
WHEAT
Wheat is following the weakness in the other Ag markets this morning on easing geopolitical risk, after President Trump halted the bombing campaign against Iran at least temporarily, higher Australian production estimates, and talk that Ukraine is interested in a new Black Sea export corridor. However, Russia continued to attack Ukraine ports over the weekend, and there has been no indication that either side is interested in ending infrastructure and vessel attacks.
CATTLE
There was no shortage of news for the cattle market this morning, with Cattle on Feed, semiannual inventory, and Cold Storage all out Friday afternoon. Late Friday, however, the USDA made a significant announcement that overrode the reports: the Mexican border will be reopened in phases starting at the Douglas, Arizona, border crossing on August 24. Now it’s much clearer why the cattle complex has endured such unusually heavy selling over the last few weeks, and how much of the border reopening is already priced in is the million-dollar question.
HOGS
The hog market had a strong finish to the week as fund shorts continue to exit their positions as prices inch higher. COT data showed Managed Money reduced their net short by over 12,000 contracts and now hold a net short of just over 18,000, which means further upside price extension will likely trigger another round of short covering and the bulls will hold the edge.
MILK CLASS III
August Class III milk finished last week with a sizable loss after reaching a 1-week low on Friday.
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil was sharply lower early Monday after the US paused its bombing campaign against Iran over the weekend. On Sunday, Iran said it will halt its own attacks as long as the US does the same. Apparently President Trump’s advisers told him they were running out of targets and they expressed worries about depleting the US arsenal. The US ambassador to the United Nations told national media that Trump had decided to pause to allow more time for diplomacy. The market is lower today despite reports that ship traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas was lower overnight and fell below last week’s low to a new low for the move. The pause in the US attacks on Iran and perhaps a new chance for diplomacy appears to be easing concerns about global supply. Demand for US LNG remains firm, and US exports are near a physical limit, but the chance of Qatari LNG being available to Europe once again pulls some support from US gas prices. US gas supply is adequate despite the chance of a boost in cooling demand over the next few weeks. The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show above normal temps across most of the lower 48, expect for some pockets of near normal.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD index fell overnight to 101.38 as a pause in fighting between the US and Iran and a corresponding drop in oil prices lifted oil-exposed currencies. However, money markets have not repriced Fed policy expectations, suggesting today’s decline in the dollar is relatively weak, as underlying fundamentals remain supportive. The sustained move above the 100 level since mid-June continues to reflect market expectations that the Fed will hike rates later in the year, leaving price direction vulnerable to the divergence in expectations between Fed and ECB rate expectations.
PRECIOUS METALS
August gold contracts moved higher alongside a drop in oil prices, Treasury yields, and the dollar. However, money markets have not repriced Fed policy expectations, suggesting today’s declines in yields and the dollar are relatively weak, as underlying fundamentals remain bearish for gold.
Copper prices on the LME moved higher, with three-month copper 0.9% up at $13,770; COMEX prices are up 0.6% to $6.39. Today’s move higher represents market relief over a pause in fighting between the US and Iran. However, the inflation outlook and elevated oil prices remain bearish for copper prices, while low inventories underpin prices.
EQUITIES
Equity index futures were higher overnight, as the markets welcomed a pause in fighting between the US and Iran. The tech sector is getting a boost from the increase in risk sentiment and news that Nvidia is in talks to provide roughly $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI as part of a data center project, per the Wall Street Journal.
INTEREST RATES
Yields moved lower across the curve, the 10-year yield falling to 4.65%. While this week’s Fed meeting is not expected to bring any change in policy, the risk of a move higher in the Fed Funds rate or a hawkish vote should not be discounted. Ahead of the Fed meeting, oil prices will likely be in the driver seat regarding yield direction.
COCOA
September Cocoa lower early Monday as the market continued to drift away from the seven-month highs from early in July. El Nino still poses a threat to global production in 2026/27, but the 2025/26 mid-crop in Africa appears to be coming in strong. World Weather Inc. says some rains were concentrate over the northern areas of Ivory Coast and Ghana over the weekend, but the central and southern received only a few brief showers and thunderstorms with poor coverage. This is not unusual for this time of year.
COFFEE
September Coffee reversed higher on Monday after falling through technical support on Friday. World Weather Inc. said another round of rain fell early in the weekend from northern Parana to Sul de Minas, Brazil, which may have raised concerns about more harvest delays. Some areas have seen frequent rain recently and would welcome drier conditions.
COTTON
December Cotton was slightly lower early Monday following a modest decline at the end of last week. The market has been in a general uptrend since early June but the move has been choppy. Persistent dry conditions in West Texas have provided underlying support, but it is important to keep in mind that it is not too late for some timely rains to boost expectations substantially, and El Nino could bring needed moisture in August.
SUGAR
October Sugar was lower early Monday and was coming close to taking out Friday’s low. Sharply lower crude oil prices today are pulling support from sugar on ideas this will lessen the incentive for cane crushers to focus more on ethanol production at the expense of sugar.
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