Brazil Coffee Exports Jump 23%

COFFEE

March Coffee managed to hold above last week’s low early Monday but just barely. Brazil exports in October were very strong and ICE exchange stocks increased last week for a change. Brazil exported 287,348 metric tons of green coffee in October (4.789 million bags), up 23% from 233,094 (3.885 million bags) in October 2025. In contrast, Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers reported on Friday that October washed arabica production totaled 1.11 million bags, down 8% from 1.21 million in October 2025. The group said months of heavy rain had hurt flowering and bean development. Coffee exports were estimated at 1.12 million bags, up 6%  from 1.06 million a year earlier. Exports for the 12 months through October were estimated at 11.85 million bags, down 11% from 13.36 million at this point last year. ICE certified arabica stocks increased by 7,685 bags on Friday to 232,456, the highest since October 22. Stocks increased 7,388 bags last week. The amount pending review has reach 62,849 bags, the highest since September 15. All are from Brazil.

COCOA

March Cocoa fell to its lowest level since June 29 early Monday, pressured by steady growth in exchange stocks and perhaps a less threatening viewpoint regarding El Nino. World Weather Inc. says the “Super” El Nino is not presenting the level of risk that previous events have and that its influence will continue to be less adverse relative to the hype. They noted an erratic rainfall pattern in West Africa over the weekend that was too light to spark a net increase in soil moisture in many areas. More of the same is expected over the next week to ten days, but that is typical for this time of year. However, they also said that cocoa areas are experiencing a good finish to the rainy season. Ivory Coast received well below normal rainfall at times this year, but the effects on the crop were unclear. Ghana and areas east have received timely rainfall this summer supporting good production potentials. Commerzbank said last week that smaller crops are expected this season in top three growers Ivory Coast, Ghana and Ecuador, thanks primarily to the strong El Nino weather pattern.

COTTON

March Cotton extended its bounce off last week’s low early Monday and reached its highest level since October 26. Good export sales last week and expectations for a slight tightening in the US and global supply for Tuesday’s supply demand update lent support. The dollar fell back overnight after a rally on Friday, which at least helps export prospects. Last week’s export sales report showed net sales of 277,500 bales for the 2026/27 marketing year, the largest so far. For the USDA supply/demand report on Tuesday, the Bloomberg survey has an average expectation for US 2026/27 cotton production at 13.16 million bales, with a range of estimates of 12.65-13.60 million. This would be down 0.28 million from the 13.44 million bales estimated in the October update. US exports are estimated around 12.27 million bales (range 11.95-12.40) versus 12.30 million last month, and ending stocks at 3.62 million bales (range 3.00-4.15 million) versus 3.80 million last month and 3.60 million in the September update. This would also be the lowest ending stocks figure since 2016/17. World ending stocks are estimated at 70.41 million bales versus 70.68 million last month. This would still be the lowest since 2011/12. US growing areas have seen generally dry conditions that support harvest recently, but rains will be needed this winter, notable us west Texas, the Delta, and parts of the southeast. South Texas did see rain last week and expected to see more this week.

SUGAR

March Sugar has managed to hold above the 18-cent level, as the expectations for soaring Brazilian exports in the wake of the collapse in their currency perhaps met up with the reality that their sugar output remains low. Brazil exported 3.246 million metric tons of sugar in October, down 21% from 4.163 million in October 2025. This did not come as a complete surprise, as Brazil’s output this year has been hampered by too much rain that interrupted harvest and reduced sugar content in the cane. The weak Brazilian real is expected to boost sales, but their crop prospects are limited for the remainder of the year. This year’s rains are good for next year’s crop. News last week that Indian sugar production soared in October may prove to be only temporary, as they started their harvest earlier than normal to boost domestic supply ahead of festival season. Energy price weakness is considered bearish for sugar because it reduces the profitability to crush cane for ethanol.

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