Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2025 Results
May 6, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower today with spreads weakening. Despite today’s pullback, prices were moderately higher for the week. Rally efforts for Dec-25 were capped at its 100 day MA before pulling back. US weather will feature cool, dry conditions across the N. Midwest over the Holiday weekend. Heavy rains in the southern Midwest and Delta region over the next 5 days with the potential for isolated flooding in MO, AK and E. OK which is also likely to trigger ponding in recently planted fields. Extended forecasts keep conditions cool in the east with above normal temperatures building in the west. The BAGE reports Argentine corn harvest advanced only 2% LW to 39% while leaving their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 50 mmt. Ukraine’s 2024/25 exports since last July have reached only 20 mmt, down 21.4% from the previous year. Initial crop ratings on Tues. are likely to show conditions slightly above their historical average. A lot may hinge on just how widespread the heavy rains are across the south this weekend. Healthy rains for much of NE will help ease drought readings.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans $.04-$.07 lower led by old crop. Meal was $1.50-$2.50 lower while oil was 25 points higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads were firmer. Spot meal spreads traded to new lows. July beans backed off after making new highs for the week overnight. Support rests at the 100 day MA at $10.49 ¼. July oil topped out overnight right at its high for the week at 50.30. Meal remains stuck between $290-$300 per ton. Spot board crush margins rebounded nearly $.05 to $1.34 ¼ bu. with bean oil PV bouncing back to 45.4%. Mostly lower today pressured by renewed tariff threats. Frustrated over a lack of progress in trade negotiations with the EU, Pres. Trump took to social media this AM threatening to impose a 50% tariff on imports from the EU. In other tariff news US Treasury Sec. Bessent stated he felt several trade deals would be announced in coming weeks. He also suggested negotiations with China will be ongoing and in person while not offering specifics. Media outlets reported that US and Chinese officials spoke via phone yesterday for the first time since the world’s 2 largest economies agreed to scale back tariffs earlier this month. Argentine soybean harvest advanced 9% to 74% complete, just a touch below their historical average. The BAGE kept their production forecast unchanged at 50 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 49 mmt. Trade Monday night will largely be driven by US weather updates, tariff headlines or concrete news regarding US biofuel policies.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed with CGO and KC down $.01-$.03 while MGEX was up $.06-$.07. Inside trade for both KC and MGEX futures. This weekend Russia and Ukraine are expected to complete their largest prisoner swap since their war began over 3 years ago. Each side is expected to return roughly 1,000 people. The BAGE reports Argentina’s wheat plantings are off to a slow start at only 3.4% of the planned 6.7 mil. HA. This is down from the YA pace at 13% and the 5-year Ave. of 7%. Today the Rosario Grain Exchange talked up current conditions suggesting this year’s wheat crop could push above 21 mmt, making it the 2nd largest crop ever. This would compare to the USDA est. of 20 mmt. Ukraine’s 2024/25 exports since last July have reached 14.6 mmt, down 14% YOY.
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