Written Commentary
CORN
Not even surging energy prices are able to prevent corn from closing $.07-$.09 lower. Spreads also weakened. It’s not often we see corn and RBOB futures move this hard in opposite directions. Sept-26 ended a run of 5 consecutive higher closes. The $.40 runup from last week’s lows in Dec-26 futures stalled as it approached the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4.66. MA resistance rests just above the market between $4.68 ½ and $4.73. Ethanol production slipped to 321 mil. gallons, down from 329 mil. the previous week while still up nearly 1% YOY. Production was in line with expectations. There was 108 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.3 mil. bu. per day, below the 15.87 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.575 bil. bu. In the MY to date there has been 4.639 bil. bu. used, or 15.16 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.533 bil.
SOYBEANS
Prices closed mixed with beans steady to $.05 lower, meal was down $3-$5 while oil was up over $.02 lb. Bean and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads firmed. Early strength saw Aug-26 beans stretched out to a 6-week high at $12.04 ¼ before pulling back. Nov-26 beans also rejected its first trade above $12 in 7 weeks. The range in Aug-26 meal almost exactly matched that of yesterday. Aug-26 oil jumped out to a 3-week high. Crush margins (Aug-26) surged $.29 to $2.84 bu. with bean oil PV jumping over 1% to 53.2%. Today’s flash sale to China showed 136k mt (5 mil. bu.) for 25/26 MY and 336k mt (12.3 mil. bu.) for 26/27 MY. US FOB offers at the Gulf range from $.10-$.20 over Brazilian offers out the Nov-26. Weekly sales to China will need to average nearly 1 mmt per week in order to reach 25 mmt before Brazil’s harvest early next year. Renewable diesel profit margins remain strong with D4 RIN’s trading up to $2.50. S&P Global notes the $.90 lbs. is the currently break-even price for bean oil for a California RD producer.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.11 lower across the 3 classes. CGO Sept-26 was down $.10 ¾ at $6.07 ¾ after trading to a 5-week high. The rally stalled just below its 50-day MA. KC Sept-26 was $.07 ½ lower at $6.45 ¼, also stalling just below its 50-day MA resistance. MIAX held up best with Sept down $.02 ¼ at $6.30 ¾. While rains in the eastern Dakota’s was of benefit, moisture will likely be scarce leading up to next week’s surging heat. The Reuters survey shows traders expect US 26/27 wheat stocks to slip 30 mil. bu. to 714 mil. well above my est. of 690 mil. All wheat production is expected to fall 18 mil. to 1.525 bil. due to lower winter wheat.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
