Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil reached a new contract high on Tuesday but then sold off on reports that Iran’s president and the Pakistani army chief were meeting to discuss peace efforts in the US-Iran war. However, Iran media seemed to quash those hopes when it reported that Iran’s leaders said there would be no talks with Washington until its demands were met. A previous effort in June brought a ceasefire that lasted about three weeks. There seems to be slim hopes for a solution to the war in the near term, but the market may also be viewing $100 as the limit for now. The situation remains volatile. One has to wonder what Iran thinks it can gain if it negotiates a peace before the US midterm elections.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas fell to a new contract low early Wednesday, as mild weather in the US continues to point low demand. LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 106 bcfd this week to 110 bcfd in the next week, but they added that this will remain below the five-year average of 117 bcfd. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts continue to show above normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 states. El Nino has a tendency to bring milder winters. US production is recovering after a number of setbacks from earlier this month.
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