Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.18-$.21 lower as bearish stocks data had long speculators running for the exit. Dec-26 futures traded just below $5 before bouncing into the close. Next support is at $4.88, the midpoint between the June low and the September high. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 20-55 mil. bu. Higher old crop stocks obviously provide more of a cushion if US production falls much from the current USDA est. of 15.80 bil. bu.
- 1st stocks at 2.095 bil. bu. were 177 mil. above expectations and above the range of estimates
- 2025 production was cut 57 mil. bu. to 16.964 bil. still a record high
- 2025 Ave. yield was left unchanged at 186.5 bpa while harvested acres were trimmed 310k
SOYBEANS
Prices were moderately lower in volatile, 2-sided trade. Beans were down $.02-$.05, meal was off $2-$3 while oil was steady to 15 points lower. The USDA did announce a flash sale of 105k mt (3.8 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Crush margins were little changed at $2.43 ½ bu. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 20-50 mil. bu. of beans, 200-500k tons of meal and 0-10k tons of oil. Delayed harvest in the WCB continues to keep crusher bids firm and soybean meal supplies scarce. Census soybean crush and corn usage for ethanol data from Aug-26 is due out after the close tomorrow. The lower stocks figure leaves even less wiggle room if 2026 US yields fall much below the current USDA forecast of 52.8 bpa.
- 1st stocks at 315 mil. bu. were 9 mil. below expectations
- 2025 production was cut 1 mil. bu. to 4.261 bil., in line with expectations
- The 2025 Ave. yield was left unchanged at 53.0 bpa while harvested acres were cut 20k
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.06 lower in MIAX to $.17 lower in CGO. I was surprised the degree of the selloff given the lower-than-expected stocks despite production coming in above expectations. Only 67% of the planted WW acres were harvested for grain, suggesting abandonment at 33%, the highest since the Dust Bowl nearly a century ago.
- All Wheat production at 1.534 bil. bu. was up 3 mil. while 10 mil. above expectations, still the lowest since 1970
- Winter production was raised 29 mil. to 1.019 bil., 30 mil. above expectations while a 60 year low
- WW harvested acres cut 150k while the Ave. yield rose 1.8 bpa to 48.8 bpa
- HRW was up 3 mil, SRW up 7 mil. while white wheat was up 19 mil.
- Spring wheat production was down 24 mil. to 450 mil. while 21 mil. bu. below expectations
- 1st stocks at 1.846 bil. was 26 mil. below expectations
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