Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
May Crude Oil reached its highest level since March 9 overnight, which was the day the market peaked in reaction to Iran’s blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The market has been whipsawed by President Trump’s comments suggesting the US could end war without reopening the Strait and/or it could destroy Iran’s Kargh Island oil terminals if it chose to do so. This almost sounds like a warning to Congress on the consequences of holding back on funding for the war and also like he is pointing out that to reopen the Strait will require a ground assault. He is still saying talks with Iran progressing well, while Iran sending opposite signals.
PRODUCTS
May RBOB traded through its March 9 high at 3.3480 early Tuesday.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas fell to its lowest level since January 16 early Tuesday but is back higher on the day this morning. The weather forecast showed normal to above normal temperatures across much of the lower 48 from April 5-13, which will limit late season heating demand. For the EIA gas storage report this week, the early Reuters survey has an expectation ranging from a net injection of 7 to 38 billion cubic feet for the week ending March 27.
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