Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
April Crude Oil was higher early Tuesday, inside the rather wide consolidation of the past two weeks. US/Iran talks resumed this week Geneva, but belligerent comments from the nations’ leaders as well as actions by their militaries have energy markets on edge. The US has deployed a battle force to the region and US President Trump has said “regime change” in Iran may be the best thing that can happen. Iran on Monday carried out a drill in the Strait of Hormuz. Two US officials told Reuters that the US military is preparing for the possibility of weeks of operations against Iran if Trump orders an attack. The Baker Hughes rig count on Friday showed US oil rigs in operation were down 3 rigs to 409 last week. This was down from 480 rigs a year ago and below the five-year average of 482,
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, gasoline and diesel were finding support early Tuesday on uneasiness regarding the US and Iran. April ULSD is bound by a two week trading range after seeing a sharp reversal rally into late January when extreme cold descended on the eastern US.
NATURAL GAS
April Natural Gas extended its selloff early Tuesday but subsequently bounced off its lows. The market approached but did not enter the gap from the open on January 20 when it took off ahead of the extreme cold event that came later in the month. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts still show warm weather dominating most of the US through March 2. However, near-normal temps are predominant over the Eastern Seaboard, and below normal temps emerge in the west and the far northern plains. World Weather Inc. says cooling is likely in the US later this week and into next week, but the coldest weather will be in Canada. On the whole, the forecast does not suggest an significant drawdown in US stocks.
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