Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil is trading inside yesterday’s range and inside a week-long consolidation pattern. The CEO of Gunvor Group’s said this week that the sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to record volumes of oil being stored on vessels and while this may be preventing a glut from hitting the market in the short term, it also leaves a large overhang of supply. Reuters reports that Russia’s seaborne crude shipments saw their largest weekly decline since January 2024 this week. The four-week average volume fell to 3.58 million barrels per day as of November 2, down 190,000 barrels from the previous week. Indian refiners appear to have indeed backed off from buying Russian crude.
PRODUCTS
Reuters reported that Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse has suspended fuel exports after its oil refinery halted processing in the wake of Sunday’s drone attacks by Ukraine.
NATURAL GAS
January Natural Gas is lower this morning but inside yesterday’s range after trading to its highest level since June yesterday. The weather in the US is still trending milder than normal, but we are moving into the heating season, which does allow for some drawdown in stocks. US LNG exports jumped to a new record high last month, and they appear to remaining strong into this month. European futures reached their the highest level in about a month overnight with forecasts for lower wind generation and prospects for an unusually chilly December. Europe is the biggest buyer of US LNG.
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