Wkly Futures Market Summary For 4.14.2025

April 14, 2025
ADMIS Research Team
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SOYBEANS

There is a subdued start to the soy complex this week, with markets little changed overnight, apart from soymeal which is modestly weaker. Macro markets are stronger this morning, and the US dollar has fallen back to the 3-year lows seen early Friday morning. Friday’s move higher in beans, taking out the March highs, was a victory for the bull camp, fueled by demand from non-Chinese buyers, as US dollar weakness and Brazil’s rising soy premiums keep the US competitive.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Soybean meal is starting the week slightly lower after a robust rally last week. Tariff fears, including US/China tensions and reciprocal levies, failed to dent flat prices significantly last week, as US bean movement accelerated. Argentina’s harvest, off to a slow start, faces no major hurdles, but crushers are pressing product premiums. Oil and meal turned negative last week, reflecting cautious forward sales amid strike risks.

CORN

The market is showing a slight decline this morning despite the strength in the macro markets, and further weakness in the US dollar which supports additional demand. Asian countries are negotiating trade deals, and additional demand could come from that region. Even though USDA raised exports considerably last week, a further increase may be needed once new trade deals are announced. India resists including US corn imports in a trade deal as their current laws prohibit GMO corn. Although they need corn to expand their ethanol production, imported corn is prohibited for domestic ethanol production.

WHEAT

The wheat markets are lower this morning as additional rain chances have been added to the southern Plains this week and early next, which is weakening KC wheat compared to Chicago. Models are still having difficulty converging on rain coverage and accumulation in key areas of western Kansas. However, outside of the Panhandles, Texas and Oklahoma appear to be in line for a good drink late this week. Friday’s strong rally was supported by fund short covering and very strong trading volume, the highest in over a year. But the forecast changes over the weekend add a bearish headwind to start the week.

CATTLE

After a very volatile trading week, cattle and feeder prices closed higher on Friday, but inside the huge daily trading range made on Wednesday. The Dow Jones is nearly 500 points higher this morning, crude oil is higher, and the US dollar is weaker, supporting a stronger opening today.

HOGS

June hogs were little changed on Friday, but the reversal higher midweek last week was a bullish signal. Stronger macro markets this morning may result in a higher opening, and if prices can gap up today, the technical outlook will improve significantly. Commitments of Trader’s data showed Managed Money continued to exit long positions, which now stand at a 7-month low.

MILK CLASS III

May Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly gain after falling to a new contract low on Monday and rebounding to a two-week high on Thursday.

ENERGIES

Crude oil was higher overnight in reaction to the news that certain electronic devices will be exempted from the retaliatory tariffs, but mixed messages from the Trump Administration about new tariffs undercut that support. Ideas that the global economy will suffer from a protracted trade war between the US and China have lowered demand expectations for oil this month.

Like crude oil, the products are finding tentative support from the exemptions posited on Friday but not fully enthusiastic because of uncertainty over Administration’s next move.

Natural gas prices drew some support in Europe overnight off optimism from the US exemptions for electronic goods, like other energy markets, it remains on edge from the uncertainty.

DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower and is hovering at its lowest level in three years as concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and policy direction continued to weigh on sentiment. The greenback weakened mostly against the euro currency and the Japanese yen.

COCOA

July Cocoa is lower this morning, perhaps because Ivory Coast arrivals recovered this week after a steep decline last week and perhaps because of better weather in West Africa.

COFFEE

The coffee market appears to have found support after a spike lower last week, but better rainfall in the forecast for Brazil and ongoing demand concerns could limit the gains.

COTTON

July Cotton was slightly lower overnight but is still respecting the low that came in the wake of the tariff announcements.

SUGAR

The UNICA report on Brazil Center-South sugar production for the second half of March will be released today.

PRECIOUS METALS

Last week, gold surged to a record high due to a wave of safe-haven buying, fueled by escalating tensions between the U.S. and China. After Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, Beijing responded by hiking duties on U.S. imports to 125%, effective Saturday.

May copper futures are higher, continuing their rebound. Copper futures advanced on Monday, building on last week’s momentum as investor confidence improved.

EQUITIES

Futures advanced as a surprise U.S. tariff exemption from President Donald Trump gave tech companies a boost to start the week. President Donald Trump exempted smartphones and computers as well as other devices and components such as semiconductors from his new “reciprocal” tariffs, according to new U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance issued late Friday.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are slightly lower at the front of the yield curve, and are higher at mid-curve and at the long end of the yield curve.

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