Written Commentary
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 3 cents and near 12.61. SMZ is near 374.1. BOZ is near 53.48. CZ is down 2 cents and near 4.85. WZ is down 6 cents and near 5.66. KWZ is down 6 cents and near 6.80. MWZ is down 3 cents and near 7.27. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is near $86. USDA October report, China demand and SA weather are key to grain prices.
Soybean futures are lower. China Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet. There are chances of rain in the dry areas of Brazil in the 2nd week. US Midwest weather is mostly dry. USDA will issue today weekly inspections and crop ratings. Trade est US soybean yield near 49.9 and 2023/24 carryout at 233. There is some talk that US Midwest soybean yields could be higher than expected. Lower Rin values and lower World vegoil prices weighed on soyoil futures.
Corn futures are lower. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet. There are chances of rain in the dry areas of Brazil in the 2nd week. US Midwest weather should be mostly dry. USDA will issue inspections and crop ratings today. Some feel CZ is near seasonal low. Range 4.70-5.20. Some also feel highs could be post harvest and if SA weather remains dry. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 and 2023/24 carryout at 2,138. There is some talk that US Midwest corn yields could be higher than expected.
Wheat futures are lower. Some feel WZ could test 6.00-6.20 on lower Argentina wheat crop could drop to 15 mmt vs est near 19-20. West Australia is dry but early harvest yield are better than expected. Kazakhstan wheat crop could be 12.3 mmt due to dry weather and vs USDA 15. This raises some concern about Russia crop. Marif wheat futures are higher on possible new China business. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 647 vs USDA 615.
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