Grains Off to Mixed Start


Grains are mixed. SX is down 2 cents and near 10.81. SMZ is near 383.50. BOZ is near 34.55. CZ is down 2 cents and near 4.16. WZ is down 9 cents and near 6.23. KWZ is down 14 cents and near 5.55. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold and copper are lower. Some weakness in stocks and energy going into US elections. Higher US Dollar is weighing on metals. There may be no new US stimulus deal until after the US elections.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 7 cents; HRW up 11; HRS up 18; Corn was up 17 cents; Soybeans up 31; Soymeal up $17.00, and; Soyoil up 95 points. Crushing margins were up 18 cents at $1.27; Oil share is down 1% at 30%.

China plenum is this week. Some feel they will announce infrastructure spending to help their economy and increase China demand for imported base meals and other raw materials.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 62 yuan in soybeans, up 11 in Corn, down 2 in Soymeal, up 66 in Soyoil, and up 46 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 51 ringgit at 2,993 (basis January) at midsession tracking rival vegoils.

U.S. hard red winter wheat areas are now expecting significant rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow in some of the driest areas during the early to middle part of this week.

Brazil rainfall was sufficient for a notable boost in soil moisture in Minas Gerais and Goias where rain totals varied from 0.60 to more than 1.50 inches. Lighter and more sporadic rain occurred in other areas of Brazil allowing fieldwork to advance, although pockets still need significant rain Brazil’s rainfall is similar for the coming ten days as to that of Friday. Rain will fall in most of the nation at one time or another, but rainfall will be least frequent and least significant in the interior south.

Argentina weekend rainfall was sufficient for a notable boost in soil moisture and improved soil and crop conditions. Rainfall varied from 1.00 to 2.50 inches in heart of summer crop country with local totals to 3.00 inches Argentina will receive additional rain into Monday morning and then a few follow up showers Tuesday and Wednesday before dry weather occurs for about a week.

Western CIS crop weather this week will bring erratic precipitation and warmer than usual temperatures; winter crops are turning dormant in the west and north which is normal. Ukraine precipitation will be limited after this week with the best chance for moisture during mid- to late-week.

Soybean futures have been supported by China buying US and talk of lower Brazil soybean , soymeal and soyoil old crop supply and lower Argentina soymeal exports. Could be some long liquidation into month end and US elections. US soybean harvest is estimated near 83 pct versus 75 last week and 74 average.

Corn and wheat could also be seeing some long liquidation due to forecast of rains in US south plains and parts of Russia. Corn has been supported by lack of US and Argentina farmer selling and tight South America old crop supplies. US corn harvest is estimated near 73 pct versus 60 last week and 57 average. Wheat has been a weather marker rally due to talk of lower 2021 Russia supplies.

On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 SRW Wheat; bought 9,000 Corn; bought 8,000 Soybeans; bought 4,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 51,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 253,000 Corn; net long 249,000 Soybeans; net long 94,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 87,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw HRW Wheat up 1,400; Corn down 14,500; Soybeans down 40,000 contracts; Soymeal down 2,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,000.


Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now