Wheat Supported by Low Volume Short Covering

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

Grains are slightly higher. Shorten holiday trading week. US stocks are slightly higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is slightly lower on demand worries. Gold is slightly lower. CBOT closes early Tuesday at 12:05 pm CT, closed Wednesday, pre-open 6:00 am Thursday, normal day and evening session Thursday and trading day Friday.


 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 9.81. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were higher. Central Argentina saw unexpected weekend rains.. China was rumored to have bought 1.2 mmt US soybeans. Most feel closer to 500 mt and could be cancelled if Trump imposes additional tariffs to China. Record Brazil 2025 crop limits upside. Some est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 480 mil bu vs USDA 470 due to lower exports. Producers should add to 2025 sales near 10.00 SX. US 2025 soybean acres could be down 3.0 million.

CORN

CH is near 4.47. Dalian corn futures were higher. Some est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,575 mil bu. USDA should increase US 24/25 demand 160 mil bu. This due to higher export and domestic use. A US 2024/25 carryout near 1,575 helps support prices. Still US export demand should slow early in 2025 due to South America competition. US Midwest could see normal rains and warm temps next week. US 2025 corn acres could be up 2-4 million. Producers should add to 2025 sales near 4.50 CZ.

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.38. KWH is near 5.50. MWH is near 5.97. Wheat futures supported by low volume short covering. A strong US Dollar offers resistance. But 2025 exports from the EU/Russia could be 15 mmt below last year offers support. Still warm and dry in US plains. US SRW areas are wet. US N plains are cold. EU is wet. Black Sea is mostly dry Most keep US 2024/25 wheat carryout near USDA 795 mil bu. US 2025 wheat acres could be down 1.0-1.5 million.

 

 

 

 

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