Weekend Midwest Rains Weighed on Futures


Grains are mixed.  SX is unchanged and near 14.04. SMZ is near 406.3. BOZ is near 65.40. CZ is down 2 cents and near 6.20. WZ is down 3 cents and near 7.67. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 8.43. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 8.83.

US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower.  Commodities worried about global recession and demand lower than supply.

Weekend rains feel across parts of E SD, S MN, E IA, S WI, most if IL, MI and parts of IN and OH. Rains also feel across W TX and US SE. US Midwest 6-10 day forecast is normal to above temps and normal rains. 8-14 is cool with above normal rains south below normal north plains.

Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour this week. 12 of last 20 years tour has underestimated USDA Sep soybean yield, 7 above. 13 years of 20 tour corn yield was below USDA Sep( 2 bpa) 7 years above (1 bpa).

Corn futures are lower. Weekend US Midwest rains weighed on futures. Corn basis is firm but could begin to soften as US harvest nears. Bulls looking for increase demand post US harvest and CZ could test 7.00. CZ for now is in a 5.80-6.40 range. Most look for US 2022/23 corn carryout near 1,425 vs USDA 1,388. Lower ethanol use could increase carryout from USDA.

Soybean futures  are unchanged. Weekend US weather, uncertain China demand and talk of higher South America 2023 supply versus higher nearby demand keeps soybean futures rangebound. US crushers still bidding up for beans before harvest. SX support 13.75. Resistance near 14.50. Most look for US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 260 vs USDA 245. Higher crush is offset by lower exports.

Wheat futures are lower. Wheat resistance due to talk of increase Russia and Ukraine wheat exports, slow US export demand and higher US Dollar. WZ support 7.50. Resistance 8.00.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now