Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.98. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil were lower, soyoil higher. Rains are forecast for C/E Brazil. Rest of SA forecast is drier. N BA, Cordoba and Santa Fe soils are drying and soon will need rain. USDA left US soybean carryout at 470 mil bu. Brazil soybean crop was left at 169.0 mmt but USDA did raise Argentina at 52.0. USDA added 1 mmt to Argentina crush which increase crush to 41 mmt, up 4.5 vs ly and will add more soymeal supply for export. USDA left China imports at 109 mmt. USDA lowered Canada rapeseed crop 1.2 mmt to 18.8. This pushed China RSO prices higher. USDA also lowered EU sunseed crop to 8.8 mt, a 4 year low. USDA did increase US soyoil exports.
CORN
CH is near 4.49. Dalian corn futures were higher. Big news of the day was USDA dropping US corn carryout to 1,738. This was in response to fact both US export pace and ethanol use is ahead of ly. Simple graph shows USDA carryout down since Sep and futures up since Oct. US corn export prices are competitive to both SA and Ukraine. USDA left Brazil corn crop at 127.0 mmt and Argentina at 51.0 mmt. Brazil corn futures were higher on talk their corn crop is being delayed. USDA dropped China corn imports to 14 mmt with some closer to 9 mmt. USDA did lower EU corn crop and down 4 mmt vs ly. There are also concerns about 10 mmt of EU crop quality. Bears feel USDA could be too high in US demand est and Trump tariffs could slow new sales in 2025.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.63. KWH is near 5.66. MWH is near 6.07. USDA did lower US wheat carryout to 795 mil bu due to higher exports. USDA did drop Russia wheat exports 1 mmt to 47 but may be still too high.. Some feel USDA numbers are futile with World trade moving away from free market economics among largest World seller and buyer. USDA did lower EU crop which is now 14 mmt below ly. March Matif futures rallied and is testing 100 DMA.
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