MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is up near $77. US increase sanctions against Russia. Higher US labor market could slow Fed rate cuts. China trade data was higher than expected.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.35. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were sharply higher. Argentina weather is dry and warmer but showers are forecast after day 11. NASS dropped US soybean yield 2 bpa below trade average. USDA dropped soybean moisture back to 13 pct due to late summer dryness. Crushers est average seed moisture at 10.5 pct and seed size was smaller. USDA left US crush at 2,410 mil bu vs 2,287 ly. US 2024/25 exports are 1,825 mil bu vs 1,695 ly. USDA lowered soyoil biofuel 400 mil lbs but raised exports 500 mil lbs. USDA raised US domestic soymeal use 200 tst.
CORN
CH is near 4.74. Dalian corn futures were sharply higher. USDA dropped US corn yield 3.8 bpa from November. USDA dropped corn moisture to 15 pct due to summer dryness. Due to less water in seed, future NASS quarterly stocks report will become more critical. USDA kept US ethanol us at 5,500 mil bu vs 5,478 ly. Feed and residual was lowered 25 mil bu to 5.775 vs 5,804 ly. Exports were lowered 25 mil bu to 2,450 vs 2,292 ly. Argentina 11-14 day forecast has showers. USDA dropped their est of China corn impots to 13.0 mmt. Some could see final imports closer to 9.0.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.38. KWH is near 5.58. MWH is near 5.89. USDA made only minor changes to US 24/25 S/D. USDA raised imports 5 mil bu, raised seed 2 mil bu and carryout 3 mil bu. USDA est USDA est 24/25 HRW end stocks at 384 mil bu vs 274 ly, SRW 110 vs 126 ly, HRS 198 vs 190. USDA kept World wheat crop at 793 mmt vs 791 ly. USDA est exports at 212 mmr vs 221 last year. World end stocks were 258 mmt vs 267 ly. China crop is est at 140 mmt, imports 10.5 vs 13.6 ly and end stocks are 133. N Africa imports could slow due to higher USD.
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