US Wheat Export Commit is Down

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SX is down 7 cents and near 13.98. SMZ is near 405.2. BOZ is near 64.40. CZ is unch and near 6.15. WZ is up 4 cents and near 7.53. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 8.22. MWZ is up 6 cents and near 8.71.

US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower on energy demand concerns. Gold, silver, copper and cocoa are lower. Coffee, sugar and cotton are higher.

Heavy rains today move in SE ND, C MN and SC. US Midwest 6-10 day forecast is mostly cool with normal to above rains south and C Midwest. 8-14 also cool with below rains south. W EU dry. W Argentina dry.

Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour next week. 12 of last 20 years tour has underestimated USDA Sep soybean yield, 7 above. 13 years of 20 tour corn yield was below USDA Sep( 2 bpa) 7 years above (1 bpa).

Soybean futures found support from China buying new crop US soybeans. Soyoil losing to soymeal. Dalian soybean, soyoil futures are lower. Matif and Canada rapeseed futures are lower. Matif lowest since February. US total old crop soybean export commit is down 4 pct from last year. New crop sales are record. Board and cash crush margins are lower on higher soybean prices. USDA and analyst estimating higher SA 2023 soybean crop. Weather forecasters calling for dry Argentina and S Brazil spring and summer.

US corn export commit is down 13 pct from last year. New crop sales increased due to new China buying. COFCO and Sinograin will now be in charge of China grain reserve stocks. Matif corn futures lower following wheat. Pro Farmer next week. Most feel US corn yield now between 173-176. Dryness in US SW could lower feedgrain supply there 500 mil bu. US 2022 corn crop should be absorbed into SW feeders, crushers and exports. US farmer bullish with no incentive to sell old or new crop at current prices.

Wheat futures are slightly higher after making new lows on Thursday. WZ and MWZ lowest since October, 2021. US wheat export commit is down 2 pct from last year. Headlines talk of increase Ukraine exports but little has been shipped to date. USDA est Russia wheat exports at 42 mmt. Monthly export pace so far in line with 30-32 mmt exports. Russia farmer still not selling wheat and are lobbying for Russia to drop export tax. Some doubt Putin will with Crude oil down $25 since early June. India raised their wheat crop est. Still government buying wheat is down 25 mmt from last year and export ban still in effect.

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