US Drought Index Expanded in Durum Area

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

Grains are mixed. Soybeans are higher. Corn and wheat are lower. US stocks are higher. Trump Treasury Secretary appointment may work with the new administration on tax cuts, deregulation and grand economic reordering. US Dollar, Crude and Gold are lower. Some risk off. Short trading week.

 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 9.98. 10.30 is key SH resistance. Bears objective is 9.00. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Soymeal was lower. USDA looks for China soybean imports near 109 mmt vs 112 last year. China suggested imports closer to 95-100 mmt. USDA est Brazil soybean exports near 105 mmt vs 104 last year. USDA est US soybean exports at 49 mmt vs 46 ly. Some could see higher Brazil and lower US final exports if Brazil 2025 crop nears record 170 mmt vs 153 ly. Some also feel Argentina crop could reach record 57 mmt vs USDA est of 51 and 48 ly.

CORN

CH is near 4.34. CH could be in a 4.20-4.40 range. Dalian corn was lower. USDA est World corn trade near 189 mmt vs 195 ly. US exports 59 vs 58. Brazil 48 vs 44. Argentina 36 mmt vs 33 ly. Ukraine 23 mmt vs 29. Ukraine and Brazil 2025 export prices are below US. This could suggest a more shift in final exports away from US and more towards South America. Ukraine exports remain uncertain if war continues to escalate. Brazil and Argentina will continue to see rains.

 

wheat grains

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.58. Risk off. WH is failed to push above 20 DMA. WH resistance is near 5.75. Black Sea wheat prices are dropping looking for demand. WH support is near 5.50. Normal 2025 World wheat crops suggest selling WN near 6.00. Same for KWN. US Drought Index expanded in US Durum area and spring wheat remains above last year. USDA est World wheat trade near 214 mmt vs 220 ly. Russia 48 mmt vs 55 ly. EU 30 mmt vs 37. Canada 26 mmt 25 ly. Australia 25 mmt vs 20 ly. US 22 mmt vs 19 ly. Ukraine 16 mmt vs 18 ly and Argentina 11 mmt vs 8 ly.

 

 

 

 

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