Trump Did Not Add To China Tariffs

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Drill baby drill. Grains are higher as Trump did not add to China tariffs.

 

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SOYBEANS

SH is near 10.51. A crop Consultant est Brazil 2025 soybean crop at 170.0 mmt vs USDA 169. Drier weather could help advance early Brazil harvest. Argentine crop ratings are in decline. C and N Argentina saw rains. One crop Consultant est Argentina corn crop at 51 mmt, down 1 mmt and vs USDA 52. World Sep-Dec soybean exports were 44.2 mmt vs 45.4 ly. Of which US was 29.2 vs 24.0, Brazil was 15.3 vs 20.9. USDA est total US 2024/25 soybean exports at 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly, Brazil 105.5 mmt vs 104.1 ly. World Sep-Dec soymeal trade was 23.3 mmt vs 17.4 ly. Of which Argentina was 10.2 mmt vs 4.8 ly, Brazil 7.7 vs 7.0 and US 5.1 vs 4.7.

 

CORN

CH is near 4.88. Drier weather may help Brazil corn planting. A crop Consultant est Brazil 2025 corn crop at 125.0 mmt vs USDA 127. Same crop Consultant est Argentina crop at 48 mmt, down 1 mmt and vs USDA 51. IGC lowered World crop due to lower US. Falling ratings in Argentina and delayed plantings in Brazil is supporting corn. Key could be global/Chinese demand for US corn especially China following the reportedly positive call between Trump and Xi.

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.46. KWH is near 5.53. MWH is near 5.88. Higher tide lifts all boats. Managed Funds remain large net shorts of wheat. The bulls point to the fund short and multiple N Hemisphere potential weather problems while the bears note that all major origins are sellers amidst perceived lower demand. Final Russia and EU wheat could be key. Reports of China being forced to resell Australia China wheat cargoes due to extending protection for the domestic industry weighed on World wheat prices.

 

 

 

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