Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SK is down. CK is down. WK is down. KWK is down. MWK is down. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower, Commodities are lower and stocks higher after Iran well telegraphed Israel attack and some feel a worst case scenario may have been already priced in. Tax Day today.
SK is near 11.69. Dalian soybean and nearby palmoil prices were lower. Soymeal and soyoil were higher. SK tested 11.79 resistance and traded lower. There remains a wide spread between USDA and private estimates of Brazil soybean crop. Lower CONAB number could suggest increase US Sep-Jan soybean exports. USDA number could limit US sales. Soybean futures could now focus on slow US farmer selling, South America competition for US soybean and soymeal exports, China demand and US summer weather.
CK is near 4.33. Sideways market ended higher Friday but are lower overnight.. Heavy rains are expected this week across east and south US Midwest. US weather uncertainty could last through US July pollination time. For now, US west Midwest planting weather looks good. Lack of weather problem could suggest CK could retest 4.25, Managed funds remain large short.
WK is near 5.48. Wheat futures are lower and stocks higher after Iran well telegraphed attack on Israel had limited damage and some feel a worst case scenario may have been already priced in. USDA dropped World 2023/24 trade to 213 mmt vs 219 ly. USDA dropped World trade to China, Middle East and SE Asia. Wheat prices may still be too high for Middle East buyers.
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