Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2024 Results
April 30, 2024
CORN
Prices were steady to $.01 lower today. July-24 held support at its 50 day MA of $4.45. First resistance is the March high at $4.60. For the past week Dec-24 corn has been stuck between its 50 and 100 day MA’s, currently $4.68 – $4.79. Heavy rains over the weekend favored the central and western corn belts. Showers are becoming more numerous across the ECB today, however good planting progress was likely made over the past week. The central and WCB had a few good days of planting before rains arrived late last week. Rain events every few days will keep planters idle across much of the central part of the country this week. Better planting opportunities for the far WCB. Export inspections at 48 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 1.245 bil. are up 32% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%. Last week money managers bought just over 41k contracts, reducing their net short position to 238,546 contracts, their small short position in just over 3 months. Algeria is seeking up to 160k mt of feed corn from SA for May shipment in a tender that expires tomorrow.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was sharply mixed with bean closing weak however still up $.01 – $.05 as nearby spreads reached new lows, meal surged $8 – $9 while oil plunged 115 – 125. July-24 beans consolidated near its 50 day MA after failing to trade above last week’s high of $11.91 ¾. July-24 oil seems stuck between $.44 – $.46. July-24 meal had an outside day up with today’s rally being capped at its 100 day MA resistance at $355.70. The jump in meal prices was likely triggered by an Argentine SOEA oilseed workers union strike in protest of labor reform bills. The strike impacts port operations in the Rosario area. Spot board crush margins improved $.03 ½ to $.86 bu. with soybean meal PV hitting a 4 month high at 61.5%. No change in the weather pattern for Brazil. Heavy rains continue to delay the remaining soybean harvest in the far southern state of RGDS. Little to no rain across the central and northern growing regions as their 2nd corn crop advances toward maturity. A good mix of rain and sunshine in western Argentina with conditions too wet in the east. Export inspections at 9 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and a new MY low. YTD inspections at 1.424 bil. are down 18% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. MM’s were net buyers across the soybean complex last week buying nearly 19K beans, just over 30k of meal, and nearly 4k oil. Money managers have flipped their position around to a net long of nearly 20k contracts in soybean meal. Their net short position in the soybean complex is down to 179k contracts. Algeria is seeking 70k mt of soybean meal from optional origins for May shipment. A Datagro analyst raised their 23/24 Brazilian production forecast 1.6 mmt to 147.9 mmt, still below the USDA est. of 155 mmt, however above Conab’s forecast of 146.5 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed in 2 sided trade. Chicago was the leader to the downside off $.10 – $.14, KC was $.02 – $.04 lower, while MGEX was up $.04 with the exception of spot May-24, which closed $.18 higher ahead of tomorrow’s FND. MGEX has now closed higher for 8 consecutive sessions. July-24 Chicago has held above the $6 level with next support below that at its 100 day MA of $5.96 ½. July-24 MGEX held support at its 100 day MA of $6.90. Better prospects for rain in Southern Russia weighed on wheat prices. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD inspections at 622 mil. are down 7% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 6.5%. MM’s were net buyers across all 3 classes last week reducing their net short position to just under 149k contracts. MM’s bought just over 20k contracts in Chicago and just over 1k in both KC and MGEX.
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