MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed, lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower ahead of potential tariffs. US Fed kept rates unchanged and will wait on rate change until there is more data on inflation. Trump announced he will impose 25 pct tariffs on Canada and Mexico imports tomorrow.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.38. China is closed for holiday. Trump announced he will impose 25 pct tariff on Canada and Mexico imports tomorrow. Soyoil futures are higher on potential drop in Canada canola oil imports to US. C Brazil saw rains . Rains are forecast next week. Argentina forecast is dry. BAGE est 30 pct of soybean crop is in critical growth stage. Crop rated 20 pct G/E down 2 pct from last week and 29 ly. W EU is too wet. Black Sea and Ukraine is too dry. SH-SK spread has widened out to -16. SMH-SMK spread record wide at -8.80.. US soybean export commit is up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 8.
CORN
CH is near 4.82. China is closed for holiday. C Brazil saw rains. Rains are forecast next week. W EU is too wet. Black Sea and Ukraine is too dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. CH-CK spread has widened out to -11. Threat of US tariffs against Mexico could have retaliations if Mexico issues tariffs against US corn. There is 300 mil bu US corn in open unshipped sales. Window for Brazil farmers to plant the safrina crop is slowly closing. Domestic demand for Brazil corn use for ethanol continue to increase. US export commit is up 28 pct vs last year and USDA up 7. Argentina corn crop pct poor increased to up 20 vs 14 last week and 11 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.58. KWH is near 5.80. MWH is near 6.17. WH-WK is near -12. Specs covered wheat shorts after one meteorologist suggested the US winter wheat crop could be down 15 pct due to winterkill and dry weather. W EU is too wet. Black Sea and Ukraine is too dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. France rains beginning to drop crop ratings and production prospects. Increase Argentina wheat sales could offset lower Russia and EU crops. US export commit is up 7 pct vs ly and USDA up 20. Some will be watching India Feb weather with domestic demand strong and end stocks low.
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