MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Trump pause in Canada and Mexico helped rally soybean, soymeal and corn futures, lower soyoil. Trump is also looking at trade imbalance with EU. GSI Commodity Index ended lower due to lower Crude. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Gold is higher. Coffee is higher.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.77. SMH is near 314.2. BOH is near 45.57. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil gapped open higher. SH is above 200 DMA, SMH filled a gap between 311-313. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Trade trying to evaluate size of Paraguay and Argentina crop. Rains fell in C Argentina. Brazil vessel wait time growing due to slow harvest. China demand for US soybeans is expected to drop as Brazil harvest increases. India weather remains warm and dry. EU oilseed imports are up 9 pct vs ly, soymeal up 16 pct and vegoil down 26 pct.
CORN
CH is near 4.97. CH is testing season high. Dalian corn futures ended higher. Trump paused tariffs on Mexico. US PNW export price is lowest to Asia. Fact Trump is talking EU tariffs must be monitored. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Trade trying to estimate SA crop size. One crop analyst est Brazil crop at 123.0 mmt down 2.0 mmt from previous est and Argentina 47.0. One satellite group est Argentina crop at 42.0. Given tighter US corn outlook, there is little room for lower SA crops. Some could see no change vs USDA, others could see 10 mmt lower. USDA announced 132 mt US corn to South Korea.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.82. KWH is near 6.01. MWH is near 6.27. Trump tariffs rallied corn which rallied wheat futures. Still, drop in World buying and currencies could offer resistance. World 2025 weather uncertainty could offer support. Matif wheat futures rallied to 3 month high due to concern about west EU crop and reluctant farmer selling. EU weather is drier. Ukraine and Russia weather id dry. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. WH is over 100 DMA. KWH 200 DMA is near 6.08. Funds remain short wheat futures.
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