Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
Soybeans Up on Dry Argentina Forecast
- February 25, 2021
- Steve Freed
- Follow us on Twitter @ADMISI_Ltd
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed SK is up 16 cents and near 14.42. SMK is near 430.3. BOK is near 50.57. CK is down 2 cents and near 5.54. WK is down 1 cent and near 6.84. KWK is down 2 cents and near 6.60. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Silver and Copper are higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
On March 15th, CBOT position limits will rise to 57,800 contracts in corn (from 33,000), 27,300 contracts in soybeans (from 15,000 contracts), and to 19,300 contracts in wheat (from 12,000 contracts).
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 10 yuan in soybeans, up 28 in Corn, up 16 in Soymeal, up 152 in Soyoil, and up 110 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 133 ringgit at 3,784 (basis May) following rival oils, some strength in exports.
Net drying will continue across much of Argentina through next Wednesday. Pockets of increasing crop stress will continue the next seven days as a result of the dryness. Last evening’s GFS model was notably wetter in southern Argentina Mar. 9 – 11. In Brazil, Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais will still be notably wet through Saturday leading to some more fieldwork delays.
SK and SX are making new highs on concern over Argentina dry weather. Asian vegoil markets are all higher and making new highs. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 200-800 mt vs 456 last year. Seasonally this is when demand shifts to South America.
CK and WK are seeing some long liquidation into March first notice. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 500-1,300 mt vs 999 last week. US remains competitive until April. Are now competitive in Sep. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 250-700 mt vs 399 last week. US is not competitive to N Africa and Mideast buyers.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 9,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 12,000 contracts of Corn; bought 10,000 Soybeans; bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 9,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 393,000 Corn; net long 196,000 Soybeans; net long 71,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 133,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 565 contracts; HRW Wheat up 945; Corn down 49,700; Soybeans down 22,900 contracts; Soymeal down 1,800 lots, and; Soyoil down 8,400.
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