Soybeans Supported by Strong US Cash Basis

MORNING OUTLOOOK

Grains are mixed. SU is up 6 cents and near 14.06. SQ is up 21 cents and near 15.53. SX is near 13.90. SMU is near 434.3. BOU is near 59.89. CU is unch and near 5.96. WU is up 4 cents and near 8.07. KWU is up 2 cents and near 8.79. MWU is up 3 cents and near 9.32.

US stocks are higher. US Central Bank meeting today. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.

US N plains and upper Midwest dry. Flooding in MO. Rains are forecast in Delta and SE. 6-10 day Midwest forecast is warm and dry. EU dry. Managed funds still unwilling to add to longs due to recession threat despite warmer and drier long range US Midwest forecast.

Soybean futures are higher. SQ is near 15.53. There are no deliveries expected. SMQ making new highs near 474. China domestic soymeal buying remains slow. Soybean futures supported by strong US cash basis and a 30 day US weather forecast calling for warm and dry weather.

Corn futures are mixed. So far CU is unable to trade over 6.00. 6.05 key resistance. Headlines still suggest Ukraine will increase corn exports to 15 mmt. Still, there are many challenges to ship grain from Ukraine. One multi-national said it is not to staffing their Odessa port elevator due to workers safety. Some also report grain that has been stuck in ports on boats may have seen sharp decline in quality. Heat and dryness is expected across much of US Midwest rest of July and first week in August. EU corn crop will be smaller than USDA estimate.  Some suggest USDA should drop EU corn crop from 68 mmt to 54. 2003 crop 50 mmt. Lower crop could force EU to import corn. Dry US south plains weather could also lower US sorghum crop. USDA still Suggesting lower World corn demand will be down vs last year when corn is lowest priced feedgrain.

Wheat rallied on short covering and some concern of lower wheat exports from Russia and EU. US SRW is lowest price wheat on the World. First day of US ND annual crop tour estimated the region wheat yield near 48.9 vs 29.4 in 2021. WU is near 8.08. Overnight high was 8.17. Key resistance is near 8.22.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now