MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Trump team considering monthly 3-5 mmt gradual increase in tariffs. China may consider selling Tik Tok to Musk.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.50. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Argentina weather is dry and warmer but showers are forecast after day 11. US soybean exports are up 22 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. USDA announced 198 mt US soybeans sold to China. SH-SK spread is near -13. US river levels are dropping. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. Most look for Brazil crop 170+ mmt vs USDA 169. One crop watcher lowered his est of Argentina soybean crop down 1 mmt to 52 vs USDA 52. US and SA farmers increased cash sales both Friday and Monday but were overshadowed by fund buying. Soybean and soymeal futures are overbought.
CORN
CH is near 4.74. CH has rallied from August on increase demand and is back near March-June, 2024 4.80 support. Dalian corn futures were higher. Argentina 11-14 day forecast has showers. US corn exports are up 26 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. CH-CK spread is near -10.5. US river levels are dropping. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. Most look for Brazil crop 125 mmt vs USDA 127. One crop watcher lowered his est of Argentina corn crop down 1 mmt to 49 vs USDA 51. US and SA farmers increased cash sales both Friday and Monday but were overshadowed by fund buying. USDA dropped their est of China corn impots to 13.0 mmt. Some could see final imports closer to 9.0.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.43. KWH is near 5.59. MWH is near 5.91. USDA est World wheat crop at 793 mmt vs 791 ly. USDA est exports at 212 mmr vs 221 last year. World end stocks were 258 mmt vs 267 ly. N Africa imports could slow due to higher USD. US wheat exports are up 25 pct vs ly and USDA up 20. KWH-KWK spread near -9.5. WH-WK spread near -12. Wheat futures are near season lows with little bullish news but market may have trade most of bearish news. Funds are short 149,000 wheat contracts.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024