Risk Off as Grains Are Lower


Grains are lower. Risk off. SN is down 17 cents and near 16.67. SX is near 15.00. SMN is near 426.5. BON is near 82.96. CN is down 9 cents and near 8.03. CZ is near 7.42. WN is down 7 cents and near 10.48. KWN is down 9 cents and near 10.95.  MWN is unch and near 11.65.

US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver and copper are lower. US Dollar is higher.

China is on holiday. Key USDA report is May 12. US Midwest, north plains, Delta and east south plains saw heavy weekend rains. US corn crop will be planted late. C Brazil is dry. Talk of higher US corn and ethanol demand should support prices. Trades may be reducing commodity positions in front of US Fed increasing US interest rates and what that could do to demand.

Soon World wheat import demand is expected to increase. New crop Matif is making new highs as more feel lower Black Sea exports could shift demand to EU. US HRW crop could be lower. India and Pakistan is hot and India wheat crop is in decline. Dry US HRW and wet US HRS forecast could support WN near 10.40 and 11.00 KWN.

US soybean export commit is equal to USDA goal. Could increase 100 mil bu. SN tested 17.00 for first time since July and August, 2012. China to sell 500 mt reserve soybeans May 6. Lower Brazil Real increased farmer selling. April Brazil soybean exports were done 28 pct vs ly. Arg soybean crop 16 pct G/E. Harvest 46 pct.

Managed funds reduced their net corn long 19,000 contracts. CN 20 DMA is near 7.84. Resistance is 8.24. Funds are net long 173,000 soybean contracts. SN 20 DMA is 16.65. 50 DMA is 16.50. Funds are net short Chicago wheat. Lack of demand for US wheat export continues to limit the upside in wheat. WN is trading below 20 DMA near 10.76 and 50 DMA near 10.52. 10.00 is support. 11.00 is resistance.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now