Report Day + Mostly Lower Trade in Ag Space

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mostly lower trade across the Ag space this AM ahead of weekly export sales at 7:30 AM CST and USDA production and WASDE data at 11 AM.  Energy prices have pulled back after the Trump Admin. announced targeted strikes against Iran have been completed although tensions in the region remain high.  Spot WTI crude oil is down $1.05 per barrel near $89.  Spot RBOB is down $.02 a gallon while HO is $.05 lower.  Also later this AM Conab will update their production estimates for Brazil while the BAGE will provide harvest progress from Argentina this afternoon.  Heavy rains continue to pound areas of the central and N. Midwest.  Heaviest amounts in the past 24 hours in N. MO along with C. IL and WI.  Rains will continue to favor the central and southern Midwest over the next 4-5 days before cooler, dryer conditions next week.  Heavy rains across the interior south of Brazil will benefit late 2^nd corn however slow early harvest progress.  Dry conditions in Argentina will continue to benefit corn harvest.  The US $$ and US stock indices are higher.

Corn: 

July-26 is $.02 ½ lower at $4.16 ½ while Dec-26 is off $.02 at $4.44 ¾.  Support for July-26 is near $4.05 with resistance at $4.41.  Traders expects little change in corn stocks (old and new crop) and new crop production in Thursday’s USDA updates.  I’ve got old crop ending stocks unchanged at 2.142 bil. with a 25 mil. bu. increase in exports offset by lower usage for ethanol.  Yesterday’s ethanol production at 326 mil. bu. was unchanged from the previous week and in line with expectations, however down 1% YOY.  The Rosario Grain Exchange held their Argentine production forecast at 68 mmt, well below the USDA’s 59 mmt est.  Harvest is estimated at 55%.  We’ll see if that production gap narrows later today.  Export sales are expected to range from 35-70 mil. bu.

Soybeans: 

July-26 beans are $.03 lower at $11.20 while Nov-26 beans are unchanged at $11.38 ½.  July-26 meal is up $1.50 at $303.40 while July-26 oil is down 23 points at 75.10.  Prices across the soybean complex have held within yesterday’s range.  Crush margins rebounded $.03 ½ overnight to $3.73 ½ bu.  After raising crush 20 mil. last month and lowering exports 10 mil. I’m looking for no changes this month with stocks holding near 340 mil. bu., in line with the average trade guess.  No changes expected for 2026 production or stocks.  Still on the lookout for fresh Chinese demand interest in US soybeans.  US FOB offers at the Gulf are steady with Brazil by Sept-26 while at a slight discount by Oct-26.  The RGE raised their Argentine production forecast 1.5 mmt to 51.5 mmt vs. the USDA forecast of 48 mmt.  Harvest is 96% complete.  US export sales are expected to range from 10-25 mil. bu. for soybeans, 300-600k mt of meal and 0-10k tons of soybean oil.

Wheat: 

Prices range from steady to $.04 lower across the 3 classes.  CGO July-26 is down $.03 at $5.84 ½.  KC July-26 is $.04 lower at $6.26 ½ hovering near its 100-day MA.  MIAX July-26 is unchanged at $6.18 ½.  The RGE raised their Argentine production forecast to 20 mmt citing improved profit margins.  The current USDA forecast is 21 mmt.

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