RBA Keeps Key Rate Unch

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are lower.

The Logistics Manager’s Index in the U.S. declined to 45.4 in July 2023, marking a third consecutive month of contraction for the overall index. In addition, the index reached a new all-time low for the fifth consecutive month.

The 8:45 central time July PMI final is expected to be 49.0.

The 9:00 June construction spending report is anticipated to show a 0.6% increase.

The 9:00 June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is predicted to be 9.65 million. The Labor Department’s JOLTS report tracks monthly changes in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits.

Most analysts appear to be bearish on balance, which from a contrarian point of view, suggests any declines will be temporary.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro zone’s jobless rate was 6.4% in June, matching May’s downwardly revised figure. The reading was lower than the 6.5% expected by economists. The number of unemployed people fell by 62,000 in the euro zone between May and June.

Germany’s unemployment rate edged down to 5.6% in July 2023, which was lower than both the previous month’s reading and the market expectations of 5.7%. Unemployment levels declined by 4,000 when economists were estimating a 20,000 increase.

U.K. factory output contracted in July at the fastest rate in seven months, according to a survey.

The S&P Global/CIPS U.K. manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 45.3 in July from 46.5 in June, which is the lowest reading this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% at its August meeting, extending the rate pause for the second month. Economists were divided over the timing of the RBA’s likely last interest rate increase in this cycle.

INTEREST RATE FUTURES

Financial futures markets are predicting there is an 80% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its September 20 policy meeting, and there is a 20% probability of a 25 basis point increase.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s 25 basis point increase in its fed funds rate on July 26 is probably the last one in this cycle.

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