Mixed Grain Markets This AM
Rainy day in Chicago. Grains are mixed. SX is unchanged and near 10.72. SMZ is near 379.4. BOZ near 33.47. Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had opened lower but are now near session highs. CZ is unchanged and near 4.13. WZ is down 5 cents and near 6.24. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 5.67. Wheat may be trying to correct an overbought technical position despite lower Dollar and higher World wheat prices. US stocks are lower. No US stimulus deal yet? Foreign interference with US election? EU stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold and Copper are lower. Technical correction? US President debate tonight. Covid virus cases continue to increase.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 91 yuan in soybeans, down 10 in Corn, down 7 in Soymeal, up 30 in Soyoil, and up 32 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 54 ringgit at 2,942 (basis January) using crude oil gains as support.
Explosion at Argentina crush plant has Argentina soymeal and soyoil values higher. There is still concern about tight Brazil old crop soybean supplies. There was talk that China bought 9 US soybean cargoes. Rains are forecasted for central Brazil. Weekly US soybean exports sales are estimated near 1,500-2,500 mt versus 2,631 last week.
CME Black Sea corn futures are at all- time highs. Talk of lower Ukraine supplies and tight EU corn supplies is offering support. Talk of China interest in US corn is also supportive. US and Argentina farmer are still reluctant seller of supplies. Rain in US Midwest could slow harvest. Weekly US corn exports sales are estimated near 800-1,200 mt versus 655 last week.
Ukraine wheat fob prices and Russia export prices are higher. There is talk that Ukraine has exported 10 mmt of wheat or 60 pct of goal with only 30 pct of the crop year. Weekly US wheat exports sales are estimated near 200-800 mt versus 528 last week. Latest weather models are forecasting some rain for US south plains. South Russia could see some showers.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net even in SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 66,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 245,000 Corn; net long 254,000 Soybeans; net long 97,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 80,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 4,100 contracts; HRW Wheat up 145; Corn up 29,900; Soybeans up 13,800 contracts; Soymeal up 3,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,700.
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