MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed. US stocks are slightly higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is slightly higher on low holiday volume. Gold is slightly higher. CBOT closes today at 12:05 pm CT, closed Wed, pre-open 6AM Thurs, normal day and evening session Thurs & Friday. There is talk of increase China bond stimulus in 2025.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.78. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were higher. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans sold to unknown. There is no shortage of beans, and products (especially soymeal) supply. Politics are against US biodiesel/renewable diesel demand growth for now, but they can change quickly. Wider vegoil markets has palmoil staying tight for the 1st half of the year, and sunoil has its supply limitations. By the middle of 2025 the weight of the increasingly likely 170 mmt Brazilian soybean crop could offer resistance. US soybean exports are 27.0 mmt vs 22.3 ly.
CORN
CH is near 4.47. Dalian corn futures were lower. Chinese feed grain imports should fall far below the 29 mmt imported in 2024. The balance of power should swing back to the buyer by mid-year amidst Brazil-Argentine new crop supplies. More likely, further rapid expansion of Brazilian ethanol and meat production and by extension more domestic disappearances could slow US exports there. US corn exports are 14.4 mmt vs 11.3 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.39. KWH is near 5.50. MWH is near 5.96. Early 2025 will be about pricing in S Hemisphere origins as cheap freight helps offset their geographical disadvantage, but the US and Canada will try to stay relevant due to drop in Russia’s grain export quota. On the demand side the recovery of the economic health of importing nations is hugely important. Deficit markets (China, Brazil, Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq) are making special efforts to enhance their own production and milling capacity. They should maintain a competitive world wheat export market. US wheat exports are 11.9 mmt vs 9.3 ly.
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