Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
August Crude Oil extended its selloff slightly early Thursday as the market continued to come to grips with the prospect of a “wave of supply” coming with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait officially opens on Friday, but it may take some time to clear the mines. European nations have pledged aid in that effort. Trump is coming under criticism from his own party as the details of the Memorandum of Understanding emerge, and that throws a bit of shade on the prospect for an extended peace, but some of the more militant voices seem to be softening their tone this morning.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were mixed early Thursday, with ULSD mimicking crude by extending its selloff and ROBB managing to hold Tuesday’s lows. Both products rallied briefly in the wake of the EIA report on Wednesday, but they were following crude oil, as the report was neutral for gasoline and slightly bearish for diesel.
NATURAL GAS
August Natural Gas continued its choppy, sideways pattern of the pas two and a half months into Thursday. The latest weather forecast shows a mix of temperatures across the lower 48 states that does not suggest any surge in cooling demand. The 6-10-day forecast has below normal temperature from the Midwest to the east coast and above normal out west and in the south. The 8-14 day is warmer, with the below normal shrinking to an area centered around Iowa and western Nebraska and South Dakota with near-normal dominating much of the central US, Great Lakes and the northeast and above normal continuing in the west and expanding in the southeast. LSEG average gas output in the US lower 48 states at 109.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, just slightly below the 109.7 bcfd in May.
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